Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:35:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6d0…3c67 weather 890 markets active 0h ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$106 (+0%) realized +$106 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate87%780W / 115L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$971now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$88
7 days−$79
14 days−$63
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$185
sports 1% +$11
crypto 0% +$1
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -18.6% -26.3% 80% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 280 -5.5% -14.5% 93% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 745 -3.0% -12.3% 93% 5% -9.8%
all 895 -3.3% -12.6% 87% 11% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 11% -9.8%
10% -20.9% 9% -18.4%
15% -28.6% 7% -26.3%
20% -35.6% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$971
Realized+$106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses780 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)895 / 890
History coverage196d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 895 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $350 $350 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $300 $300 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $162 $162 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $159 $159 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 2? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on June 2? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 73°F or below on June 2? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 92°F or higher on June 2? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 2? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 2? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 2? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 2? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 2? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on June 2? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 20 $970 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $965 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $180 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $470 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $308 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 18 $74 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 17? Jun 18 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 18 $294 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 18 $400 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $327 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $240 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 17 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $199 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $725 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $237 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 16 $600 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 16 $186 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 16 $175 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $85 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $450 $0 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $123 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 14? Jun 15 $240 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $597 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $400 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $78 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $88 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $323 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 25m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 27m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $200 39m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 52m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 53m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $43 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $81 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $106 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $48 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $200 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $65 8h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $80 9h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $64 9h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $3 9h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $13 9h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $138 9h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $300 9h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $300 9h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 24h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $971.13 · official $971.14 (match) · 2753 history records