Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:34:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6d3…f64b crypto 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$1,350 (-10%) realized −$1,350 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate60%28W / 19L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$284per market
Trades / day51.3pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$1,421
other 28% −$682
sports 2% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +0.0% -9.5% 60% 55% -23.6%
≤30d 47 +0.0% -9.5% 60% 55% -23.6%
≤90d 47 +0.0% -9.5% 60% 55% -23.6%
all 47 +0.0% -9.5% 60% 55% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 55% -23.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 40% -30.9%
15% -26.1% 38% -37.6%
20% -33.3% 28% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$286 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,350
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses28 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 49
History coverage6d
Avg bet$284
Trades / day51.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,238 −$732 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 19 $40 +$30 +74%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $301 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 19 $209 +$327 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $198 +$88 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $311 −$311 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 19 $233 +$36 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 19 $303 +$32 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $313 +$51 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 18 $1,164 −$1,140 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $621 +$543 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $103 −$51 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 18 $557 +$112 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $290 +$275 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $155 +$129 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $1,146 −$1,000 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $136 −$104 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $209 −$163 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 18 $222 +$76 +34%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $204 −$90 -44%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $570 −$239 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $230 +$225 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $155 +$73 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $112 −$112 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $142 +$128 +90%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $139 +$93 +67%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $694 +$368 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$90 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $57 +$46 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $169 −$116 -69%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $177 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $206 +$153 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $405 +$81 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $176 −$170 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $204 +$74 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $70 −$64 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $47 +$22 +48%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $554 −$545 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $159 −$154 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $360 −$201 -56%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $332 +$127 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $116 +$88 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $232 −$223 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $202 +$28 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 5¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $40 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $187 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $25 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $214 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $36 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $38 2h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 2h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 2h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $11 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $71 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 20¢ $196 2h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $63 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $307 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $307 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $535 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $249 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 301 history records