Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:13:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6d7…519f other 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%9W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$6
politics 25% −$4
economics 5% −$1
sports 4% −$11
world 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 98 -2.0% -11.4% 9% 6% -9.7%
all 102 -2.0% -11.3% 9% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 6% -9.7%
10% -19.8% 6% -18.4%
15% -27.5% 6% -26.3%
20% -34.6% 6% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×6.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses9 / 93
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)102 / 104
History coverage93d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana reach $120 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $87 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $18 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $169 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $86 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 02 $39 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $16 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $17 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $258 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $102 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 23 $16 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 17 $80 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $78 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $86 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $85 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $82 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $162 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $169 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $80 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $83 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $463 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 07 $80 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $159 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $230 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $80 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 29 $86 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 28 $171 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 24 $87 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $174 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $356 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $84 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $158 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $85 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 17 $84 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $170 −$1 -1%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $170 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $165 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $84 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $234 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $181 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $82 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $90 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $170 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 20h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 22h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 45h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 47h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 2d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 2d
Will Solana reach $120 in June? BUY No 99¢ $33 6d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 6d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 7d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 7d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $16 8d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $16 8d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $13 9d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $13 9d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $19 15d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $19 15d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $14 16d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $14 17d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $16 18d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 18d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $17 19d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 20d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 20d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $22 23d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $16 25d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $16 26d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $16 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.17 · official $68.17 (match) · 299 history records