Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:29:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6df…0814 other 128 markets active 2h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,384 (-1%) realized −$1,384 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate26%33W / 94L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$991per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$831now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$11
14 days−$28
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$61
other 35% −$234
sports 17% −$1,091
world 4% −$12
economics 2% −$1
culture 1% −$2
crypto 1% −$12
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 69 -17.3% -25.1% 10% 1% -11.5%
all 127 -3.7% -12.9% 26% 8% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 8% -10.6%
10% -21.2% 8% -19.1%
15% -28.8% 8% -26.9%
20% -35.8% 5% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,470) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$25 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$831
Realized−$1,384
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses33 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage147d
Avg bet$991
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $831 $831 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $261 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $2,674 −$3 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,615 −$3 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $340 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $3,002 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $3,554 −$5 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $3,606 −$4 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $3,266 −$5 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $2,036 −$2 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $1,090 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $1,055 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $791 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,018 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,272 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,154 −$2 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $64 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 02 $569 +$2 +0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $2,367 −$4 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,556 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $3,008 −$4 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $707 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $2,020 −$3 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $2,803 −$3 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,333 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,327 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $961 −$2 -0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in April? May 04 $407 +$2 +0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $952 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $1,582 −$2 -0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 Apr 29 $436 +$1 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $587 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $4,489 −$5 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $952 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $1,984 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $936 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,832 −$2 -0%
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 15 $37 $0 +1%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $3,403 −$3 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $1,075 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,030 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $1,422 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $2,148 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $1,470 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 09 $1,699 −$2 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $1,354 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $2,017 −$3 -0%
Will the Seattle Kraken win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 07 $971 $0 -0%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 03 $980 +$512 +52%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 28 $189 −$9 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $261 1h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $261 3h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $271 5h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $272 6h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $264 2d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $265 2d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $339 2d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $340 2d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $831 3d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $740 5d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $741 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,191 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,193 6d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,196 7d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,198 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,070 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,071 8d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,082 8d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,084 8d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,281 9d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,283 9d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,336 9d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,338 9d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,294 13d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,296 13d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,089 13d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,090 13d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,054 14d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,055 14d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $790 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $831.17 · official $831.17 (match) · 423 history records