Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:44:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6df…c74b crypto 108 markets active 3d ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$33 (-12%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%37W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$19
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$24
sports 26% −$3
other 9% −$5
world 1% −$2
finance 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -13.8% -22.0% 38% 37% -18.9%
≤30d 93 -17.3% -25.2% 35% 33% -19.8%
≤90d 105 -18.8% -26.5% 35% 33% -21.4%
all 105 -18.8% -26.5% 35% 33% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.5% 33% -21.4%
10% -33.5% 32% -29.0%
15% -40.0% 30% -35.8%
20% -45.8% 28% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses37 / 68
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)105 / 108
History coverage31d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will USD/JPY hit 165 (High) in 2026? Yes 62¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 +$2 +79%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will Sweden Jun 15 $1 +$2 +191%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 +$2 +42%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 +$1 +29%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +276%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 +$3 +73%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 −$1 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 −$2 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +250%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 +$6 +596%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 27¢ $1 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $1 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $2 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $2 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $3 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 4d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $2 4d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 76¢ $4 4d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $4 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $3 4d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 77¢ $3 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 70¢ $2 4d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $5 4d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will Sweden BUY 34¢ $1 4d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will Sweden BUY $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.66 · official $1.66 (match) · 173 history records