Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:20:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6e0…6ea7 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$19 (-8%) realized +$4 · open −$23
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$20
14 days+$23
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$22
culture 9% −$17
sports 8% +$25
crypto 4% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +54.4% +39.7% 100% 100% +29.2%
≤30d 4 +24.0% +12.2% 75% 75% +7.4%
≤90d 11 +13.0% +2.2% 36% 36% -10.7%
all 11 +13.0% +2.2% 36% 36% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.2% 36% -10.7%
10% -7.5% 27% -19.2%
15% -16.5% 18% -27.0%
20% -24.7% 18% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage51d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $24 $16 −$8 (-35%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $24 $10 −$14 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 +$5 +16%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $16 +$15 +93%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $13 +$4 +27%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 07 $21 −$8 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 23m? May 13 $21 −$17 -82%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 13 $6 −$1 -16%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? May 13 $10 −$4 -41%
Clavicular sentenced to prison? May 13 $21 −$6 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $5 +$21 +414%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $37 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 86¢ $30 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 51¢ $16 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 78¢ $13 19d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes $13 19d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 43d
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 23m? SELL Yes $4 44d
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 23m? BUY Yes 29¢ $21 44d
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 44d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? SELL No $6 44d
Clavicular sentenced to prison? SELL Yes 11¢ $15 44d
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 47d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 47d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 19¢ $5 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 49d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 49d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 49d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 50d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? BUY No $10 50d
Clavicular sentenced to prison? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 51d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes $10 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.04 · official $61.04 (match) · 77 history records