Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:46:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6e1…1b5d weather 202 markets active 14h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$55 (-12%) realized −$53 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%88W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$40
14 days−$45
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 84% −$29
crypto 8% −$8
other 6% −$15
politics 2% −$8
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +4.9% -5.1% 49% 49% -43.4%
≤30d 87 -2.1% -11.5% 48% 48% -32.0%
≤90d 199 -5.2% -14.2% 44% 44% -21.1%
all 199 -5.2% -14.2% 44% 44% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 44% -21.1%
10% -22.4% 42% -28.6%
15% -29.9% 41% -35.5%
20% -36.8% 37% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$53
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses88 / 111
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)199 / 202
History coverage83d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Yes 48¢ 52¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 17 $2 +$2 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$2 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +88%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +121%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +81%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $2 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +165%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +169%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +45%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -51%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 +$2 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 10 $1 +$2 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 +$3 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 +$4 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 7? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 4? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 4? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 3? Jun 04 $2 +$2 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 14h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 53¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 24h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 57¢ $4 40h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 42h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 46h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.18 · official $2.18 (match) · 375 history records