Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:01:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F6 0xf6e1…06bb sports 214 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,359 (+8%) realized +$3,284 · open +$75
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%92W / 116L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$625est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$2,210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,824
7 days+$385
14 days+$683
30 days+$1,228
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$3,111
other 5% −$293
world 1% −$14
crypto 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -7.3% -16.1% 45% 44% -7.0%
≤30d 146 -4.7% -13.8% 45% 45% -6.0%
≤90d 208 -1.5% -10.9% 44% 43% -3.3%
all 208 -1.5% -10.9% 44% 43% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 43% -3.3%
10% -19.4% 38% -12.6%
15% -27.2% 31% -21.0%
20% -34.4% 22% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$69 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$2,210
Realized+$3,284
Unrealized+$75
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses92 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$625
Open positions6
Markets (closed)208 / 214
History coverage53d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 208 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Over 90¢ 90¢ $1,000 $994 −$6 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $425 $428 +$3 (+1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 86¢ $300 $361 +$61 (+20%)
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 59¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $110 $122 +$12 (+11%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$107 +105%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $958 +$342 +36%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 −$2 -1%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $403 +$123 +30%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $112 +$104 +93%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $153 −$86 -57%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $224 +$122 +54%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $302 +$48 +16%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $56 −$17 -30%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$55 +109%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $101 +$61 +61%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $505 +$230 +46%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,124 +$679 +60%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,005 +$198 +20%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $72 −$18 -25%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 −$31 -31%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $50 +$17 +34%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $255 −$155 -61%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $222 +$84 +38%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1,003 −$17 -2%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $304 −$14 -5%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $203 −$4 -2%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$2 -4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $122 −$4 -3%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $222 +$71 +32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $403 −$400 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $201 +$49 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $322 +$88 +27%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$39 +77%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$37 -73%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $101 +$65 +65%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $201 +$29 +15%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $304 −$300 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $505 +$252 +50%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 203.5 Jun 14 $101 −$60 -60%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 204.5 Jun 14 $101 −$62 -61%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 Jun 14 $101 −$60 -60%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 209.5 Jun 14 $202 −$152 -75%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 Jun 14 $302 −$166 -55%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 208.5 Jun 14 $303 −$190 -63%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 Jun 14 $404 −$318 -79%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $102 −$7 -6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $202 +$80 +40%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $80 −$75 -93%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $275 −$228 -83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $1,003 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $429 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $208 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,299 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $504 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 58¢ $201 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 11h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $454 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $526 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $215 17h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 20¢ $66 17h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $51 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $112 19h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 44¢ $102 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $403 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $347 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 88¢ $351 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 39¢ $39 20h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $303 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $224 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $56 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $302 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $106 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $163 22h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $735 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 61¢ $101 24h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 68¢ $505 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,803 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,204 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,210.27 · official $2,210.27 (match) · 471 history records