Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:11:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F6 0xf6e2…2e0a sports 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$173 (+17%) realized +$189 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate77%10W / 3L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day24.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$254now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$144
other 15% +$29
crypto 15% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)+20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +32.9% +20.3% 77% 69% +11.0%
≤30d 13 +32.9% +20.3% 77% 69% +11.0%
≤90d 13 +32.9% +20.3% 77% 69% +11.0%
all 13 +32.9% +20.3% 77% 69% +11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.3% 69% +11.0%
10% ← realistic here +8.8% 69% +0.4%
15% -1.8% 62% -9.3%
20% -11.4% 62% -18.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +78% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$53 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$254
Realized+$189
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses10 / 3
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions5
Markets (closed)13 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day24.5
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 67¢ 62¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Ecuador 63¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Ecuador 39¢ 38¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners Over 49¢ 42¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-15%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 56¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $30 +$17 +57%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 +$31 +152%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$33 +65%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $31 +$51 +165%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $202 +$68 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$36 +70%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 20 $30 +$19 +62%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$27 +54%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $71 +$45 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 63¢ $51 18m
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 39¢ $51 23m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 47m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 49¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $30 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $20 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $31 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 6h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 100¢ $270 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 18h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 74¢ $202 19h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 48¢ $51 21h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 49¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 22h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 61¢ $30 22h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $51 22h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $20 24h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $51 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $253.94 · official $253.94 (match) · 35 history records