Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:20:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6e2…de96 crypto 378 markets active 2h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$259 (-2%) realized −$259 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%157W / 219L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$767
7 days−$508
14 days−$325
30 days−$308
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$1,199
other 13% −$73
sports 1% −$30
politics 0% +$188
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -40.1% -45.8% 21% 21% -34.2%
≤30d 81 -28.3% -35.1% 30% 27% -21.4%
≤90d 376 -22.7% -30.1% 42% 39% -17.2%
all 376 -22.7% -30.1% 42% 39% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.1% 39% -17.2%
10% ← realistic here -36.8% 30% -25.1%
15% -42.9% 24% -32.3%
20% -48.5% 16% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$20 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$259
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses157 / 219
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)376 / 378
History coverage56d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 376 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $296 −$243 -82%
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 3 Austria? Jun 28 $72 −$70 -98%
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 2 Austria? Jun 28 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $51 −$19 -38%
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 28 $5 −$4 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Portugal? Jun 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 28 $67 +$36 +54%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? Jun 28 $21 −$10 -49%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $15 −$2 -15%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? Jun 28 $51 −$34 -66%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal? Jun 28 $15 −$9 -55%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? Jun 28 $5 +$5 +105%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Spain? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 27 $22 +$18 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 27 $17 +$9 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 27 $41 −$11 -27%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $92 −$81 -88%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 Mexico? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 27 $73 −$73 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 Mexico? Jun 27 $46 −$46 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $36 +$197 +549%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $151 +$59 +39%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Spain? Jun 27 $10 +$5 +50%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $8 −$5 -64%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Spain? Jun 27 $2 −$1 -52%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Spain? Jun 27 $5 +$3 +54%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $106 +$91 +86%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 Mexico? Jun 25 $8 +$21 +263%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $32 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 1 Austria? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $92 2h
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 2h
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 40¢ $31 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 28¢ $46 2h
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 3h
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 3h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $103 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? SELL Yes 7¢ $10 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 25¢ $13 4h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? SELL Yes 4¢ $18 4h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal? SELL Yes 3¢ $7 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1436 history records