Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:32:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6e3…de04 other 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$187 (-11%) realized −$205 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$419per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 40d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-35.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +5.9% -4.1% 50% 50% -8.7%
≤30d 2 +5.9% -4.1% 50% 50% -8.7%
≤90d 3 -28.9% -35.7% 33% 33% -10.6%
all 3 -28.9% -35.7% 33% 33% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.7% 33% -10.6%
10% -41.8% 0% -19.2%
15% -47.4% 0% -27.0%
20% -52.6% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$205
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage40d
Avg bet$419
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? No 77¢ 96¢ $76 $94 +$18 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? Jun 24 $37 +$4 +12%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Jun 20 $438 $0 -0%
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? SELL No 97¢ $23 3m
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? SELL No 97¢ $33 3m
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? SELL No 97¢ $946 10m
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? SELL No 97¢ $388 16m
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? SELL Yes 97¢ $42 17m
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? BUY No 85¢ $12 1h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 1h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? BUY Yes 86¢ $36 1h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? BUY No 87¢ $252 1h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? BUY No 81¢ $33 1h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? BUY No 79¢ $106 1h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? BUY No 87¢ $125 9h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? BUY No 86¢ $23 9h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? BUY No 82¢ $10 26h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? BUY No 82¢ $23 26h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? BUY No 49¢ $1 47h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? BUY No 70¢ $42 47h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? BUY No 66¢ $7 47h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? BUY No 53¢ $10 2d
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? BUY No 82¢ $52 2d
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? BUY No 82¢ $93 2d
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? BUY No 82¢ $3 2d
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? BUY No 80¢ $4 2d
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? BUY No 72¢ $75 2d
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? BUY No 69¢ $321 3d
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? SELL No 93¢ $291 3d
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? BUY No 18¢ $2 3d
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? SELL No 92¢ $3 3d
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? BUY No 91¢ $147 5d
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? BUY No 93¢ $147 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.75 · official $92.76 (match) · 35 history records