Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:13:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F6 0xf6e4…0b1c crypto 156 markets active 2h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$119 (+1%) realized +$119 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate95%147W / 8L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$234now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$114
other 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 8 +0.2% -9.4% 88% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 28 +0.9% -8.7% 93% 4% -8.8%
all 155 +0.5% -9.1% 95% 1% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 1% -9.1%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×8.7 per $1 lost it wins $8.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$234
Realized+$119
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses147 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)155 / 156
History coverage270d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $234 $234 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 23 $236 −$3 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $236 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $235 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $234 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $233 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $232 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $231 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 18-24? May 25 $230 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? May 23 $224 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 18-24? May 21 $229 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17? May 18 $229 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? May 11 $228 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? May 10 $227 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 8? May 09 $225 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? May 04 $224 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 01 $222 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 21? Apr 22 $220 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11PM ET Apr 20 $215 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Apr 20 $210 +$6 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 April 13-19? Apr 18 $210 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $210 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $210 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12AM ET Apr 14 $181 +$20 +11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on April 9? Apr 11 $190 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $189 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 5? Apr 05 $188 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 3? Apr 04 $187 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 01 $185 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $185 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $184 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on March 20? Mar 21 $183 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 20? Mar 20 $182 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $181 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $181 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 March 9-15? Mar 16 $180 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on March 11? Mar 12 $179 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on March 11? Mar 11 $177 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 12? Mar 11 $178 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 10? Mar 11 $177 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 8? Mar 09 $177 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $177 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 5? Mar 06 $176 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 5? Mar 06 $176 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on March 2? Mar 03 $176 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Mar 01 $174 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 25? Feb 24 $174 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 February 16-22? Feb 23 $173 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 20? Feb 21 $171 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 18? Feb 19 $170 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 17? Feb 17 $169 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $234 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $233 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $236 37h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $236 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $235 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $234 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $233 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $232 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $231 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 18-24? BUY No 100¢ $230 32d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 18-24? SELL No 100¢ $6 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $224 33d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 18-24? SELL No 100¢ $224 34d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 18-24? BUY No 99¢ $229 35d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17? BUY No 100¢ $229 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $229 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $228 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $227 46d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 8? BUY No 99¢ $225 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? BUY Yes 99¢ $224 53d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $222 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $220 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $219 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $118 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $97 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $216 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $210 64d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 April 13-19? SELL No 100¢ $210 66d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 April 13-19? BUY No 100¢ $210 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on April 17? SELL No 100¢ $210 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $233.88 · official $233.88 (match) · 334 history records