Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:39:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F6 0xf6e4…b53e world 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 340d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate33%20W / 40L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$4
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$5
other 25% $0
politics 18% $0
sports 8% +$1
tech 2% +$2
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.0% -10.4% 20% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 30 +72.8% +56.3% 33% 10% -9.8%
≤90d 43 +50.9% +36.5% 40% 7% -9.4%
all 60 +36.5% +23.5% 33% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.5% 5% -9.4%
10% +11.7% 3% -18.1%
15% +0.9% 3% -26.0%
20% -9.0% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +73% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

340d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses20 / 40
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)60 / 60
History coverage340d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 60 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $184 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $49 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $82 −$1 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $19 −$1 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $91 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $83 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $7 +$1 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $83 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $260 −$3 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $85 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $84 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $4 $0 -4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $263 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $99 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $194 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $226 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $82 +$2 +3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $90 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $266 −$10 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $16 −$1 -8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $102 −$2 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $1 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $103 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $94 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $98 +$5 +5%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $98 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $80 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 22 $52 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $98 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $214 +$1 +0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 26 $99 +$2 +2%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 25 $108 +$1 +1%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $194 −$2 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 23 $87 +$2 +2%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $564 +$1 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $620 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $553 +$12 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $553 +$1 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 19 $63 $0 -0%
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 19 $76 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in Jul 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 19 $136 $0 +0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 19 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $90 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $90 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $27 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $34 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $81 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $82 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $15 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 72¢ $18 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $19 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $91 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $91 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $56 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $35 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $91 5d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 7d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $83 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $72 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $7 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $7 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 84¢ $83 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $83 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $4 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $87 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 228 history records