Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:01:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
F6 0xf6e5…b254 other 301 markets active 1h ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,063 (+1%) realized +$1,065 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate49%148W / 152L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$245per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$358est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$199
7 days+$263
14 days−$101
30 days+$265
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$1,990
sports 44% +$2,553
world 1% −$11
crypto 0% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +142.6% +119.5% 50% 42% +6.3%
≤30d 31 +53.6% +39.0% 39% 35% -1.8%
≤90d 230 +14.3% +3.4% 43% 36% -3.3%
all 300 +11.8% +1.2% 49% 39% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.2% 39% -8.8%
10% -8.5% 30% -17.5%
15% -17.4% 24% -25.5%
20% -25.5% 17% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$89 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized+$1,065
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses148 / 152
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$358
Open positions1
Markets (closed)300 / 301
History coverage210d
Avg bet$245
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 300 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $382 −$66 -17%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $169 −$104 -62%
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 17 $48 $0 +1%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Luca Van Assche Jun 17 $202 +$41 +20%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $108 +$250 +232%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $142 +$58 +40%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $129 +$71 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $115 −$67 -58%
Will FC Mito Holly Hock vs. V-Varen Nagasaki end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $15 +$270 +1800%
Will CD Comerciantes Unidos win on 2026-05-25? Jun 06 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs. Molde FK end in a draw? Jun 06 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? Jun 06 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Gamba Ōsaka end in a draw? Jun 06 $42 −$42 -100%
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. Recoleta FC end in a draw? Jun 06 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC end in a draw? Jun 06 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 $0 -10%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $333 +$96 +29%
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Liaoning Tieren FC end in a draw? May 24 $57 −$45 -79%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC end in a draw? May 24 $61 −$50 -81%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $166 +$49 +30%
Will Minnesota United FC vs. Real Salt Lake end in a draw? May 23 $41 +$172 +418%
Will El Gouna SC vs. Tala'ea El Gaish SC end in a draw? May 23 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $90 +$110 +122%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-05-22? May 23 $100 +$100 +100%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahce May 22 $138 −$82 -59%
Will São Bernardo FC win on 2026-05-16? May 21 $81 −$41 -51%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Damac Saudi Club end in a draw? May 21 $65 −$44 -67%
Will CA River Plate vs. Red Bull Bragantino end in a draw? May 21 $50 +$150 +300%
Will EC Bahia vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw? May 17 $63 +$137 +216%
Will CD Huachipato win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $58 +$92 +158%
Will Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Sydney FC end in a draw? May 16 $46 +$149 +325%
Will Henan FC win on 2026-05-15? May 15 $110 +$110 +100%
Bordeaux: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm May 15 $67 −$49 -72%
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 14 $113 −$113 -100%
Will Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? May 14 $60 +$140 +233%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $104 −$60 -58%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $151 +$66 +43%
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $128 −$67 -53%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $194 −$37 -19%
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $127 −$48 -38%
Will AC Monza win on 2026-05-08? May 10 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $292 +$12 +4%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $92 −$42 -46%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $141 +$59 +41%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $129 +$70 +54%
Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $110 +$90 +82%
Will CU Técnica de Cajamarca vs. FC Cajamarca end in a draw? May 08 $134 −$23 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $204 49m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $315 50m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 0¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 86¢ $272 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 22¢ $110 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $82 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $49 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $87 2h
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 4h
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 99¢ $48 5h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 85¢ $85 7h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 81¢ $21 8h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 81¢ $95 8h
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 35¢ $70 23h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 97¢ $179 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 97¢ $15 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $9 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $57 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $59 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $12 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $84 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.50 · official $197.50 (match) · 1803 history records