Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:16:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6e6…e0bb other 174 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,185 (-8%) realized −$5,201 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate45%78W / 95L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$382per market
Trades / day49.2pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$73
7 days−$212
14 days−$281
30 days−$508
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$2,857
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -4.9% -13.9% 43% 33% -11.0%
≤30d 50 -11.5% -19.9% 44% 28% -12.3%
≤90d 173 -11.9% -20.3% 45% 21% -13.3%
all 173 -11.9% -20.3% 45% 21% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.3% 21% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -27.9% 12% -21.6%
15% -34.9% 9% -29.2%
20% -41.3% 7% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$540) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$79 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$5,201
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses78 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)173 / 174
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$382
Trades / day49.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $47 $63 +$16 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $339 −$76 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $24 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $932 −$82 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $36 −$3 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $169 +$17 +10%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,324 +$71 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$2 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $12 −$2 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $34 +$20 +61%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $4 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $384 −$102 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $278 −$32 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $237 −$84 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $244 −$106 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $286 −$95 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $130 −$42 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $209 −$17 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $187 +$70 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $22 +$2 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $24 +$13 +54%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $42 −$8 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $25 −$14 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $279 +$108 +39%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $162 +$56 +35%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $840 +$95 +11%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$9 -91%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $226 −$112 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $975 +$95 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $32 +$4 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $528 +$44 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $122 +$25 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $74 −$18 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $140 −$74 -53%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $229 −$76 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $970 +$106 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $186 −$77 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $628 −$125 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $186 +$21 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $123 +$12 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $224 +$30 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $9 −$5 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $88 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $292 +$18 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $163 −$66 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $180 −$70 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $142 −$27 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $383 −$18 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $252 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 18 $32 −$6 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $49 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 3h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $9 4h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $38 4h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $13 4h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 4h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $11 4h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $14 4h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 4h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $18 5h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 5h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 6h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $37 9h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 9h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 9h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 9h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 9h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $25 17h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 17h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 17h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 17h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 17h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 17h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 17h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 17h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 17h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $16 17h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $15 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.88 · official $62.88 (match) · 3500 history records