Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:58:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F6 0xf6e6…9e43 other 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,574 (-54%) realized −$1,568 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$325per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$1,223
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-31.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -24.2% -31.4% 43% 43% -47.9%
≤30d 7 -24.2% -31.4% 43% 43% -47.9%
≤90d 7 -24.2% -31.4% 43% 43% -47.9%
all 7 -24.2% -31.4% 43% 43% -47.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.4% 43% -47.9%
10% -37.9% 43% -52.9%
15% -43.9% 29% -57.5%
20% -49.4% 29% -61.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$146 vs −$413 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$1,568
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$325
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-8%)
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,009 +$226 +22%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$136 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,511 −$1,511 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $103 −$102 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 29m
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 30m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 88¢ $1,235 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 10h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 12h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $504 19h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $1,009 19h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 20h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 20h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 20h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,007 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.75 · official $53.75 (match) · 16 history records