Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:29:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F6 0xf6e9…9756 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$151 (-11%) realized −$142 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$314now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$310
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-66.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -63.3% -66.8% 25% 25% -36.1%
≤30d 4 -63.3% -66.8% 25% 25% -36.1%
≤90d 4 -63.3% -66.8% 25% 25% -36.1%
all 4 -63.3% -66.8% 25% 25% -36.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -66.8% 25% -36.1%
10% -70.0% 25% -42.2%
15% -72.9% 25% -47.8%
20% -75.5% 0% -52.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -63% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$225 vs −$175 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$314
Realized−$142
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $288 $282 −$6 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $36 $33 −$3 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $177 −$172 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $181 −$179 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $495 +$225 +46%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $180 −$175 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $294 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $181 8h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $173 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $720 45h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $278 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $216 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $37 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $180 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $314.39 · official $314.39 (match) · 12 history records