Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:39:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6ef…e2c9 other 279 markets active 1h ago coverage 582d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,855 (-10%) realized −$1,838 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate53%143W / 129L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$124
7 days−$193
14 days−$120
30 days−$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$1,512
sports 12% −$377
politics 5% +$77
crypto 3% −$241
world 1% +$72
culture 1% +$50
tech 0% $0
weather 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -17.9% -25.7% 57% 57% -36.6%
≤30d 54 +3.4% -6.5% 67% 59% -15.4%
≤90d 78 +0.0% -9.5% 63% 58% -15.3%
all 272 -8.5% -17.2% 53% 46% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 46% -19.0%
10% -25.2% 38% -26.8%
15% -32.4% 29% -33.9%
20% -39.0% 18% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$45 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

582d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$1,838
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses143 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)272 / 279
History coverage582d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 272 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? No 64¢ 86¢ $25 $33 +$8 (+34%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 53¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $165 −$108 -66%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $15 −$14 -91%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$7 -92%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $35 +$14 +38%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $36 +$13 +37%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $57 +$12 +20%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$43 -84%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 +$11 +23%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$16 +78%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $25 −$21 -82%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$7 +32%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $20 +$3 +13%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$2 +23%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $14 +$6 +41%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $15 +$6 +41%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06- Jun 13 $5 +$10 +188%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 +$5 +31%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $20 +$3 +13%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $10 +$4 +43%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$8 +82%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $154 −$8 -5%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -27%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $10 $0 -1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$2 +21%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$2 +24%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 +$3 +15%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $50 +$19 +38%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 10 $6 −$1 -11%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$10 +99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $20 −$1 -3%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $20 +$1 +3%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $20 +$3 +14%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $20 +$5 +25%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $10 +$5 +48%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 +$5 +46%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $10 +$1 +10%
Counter-Strike: Banger Gang vs ZOTIX (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Play Jun 05 $50 +$18 +36%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $61 −$61 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 62¢ $25 57m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 64¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 53¢ $25 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? A BUY 36¢ $57 28h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $56 34h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY 53¢ $61 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $15 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $15 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $8 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $18 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $8 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 72¢ $36 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY 72¢ $35 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 76¢ $68 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $57 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL 9¢ $8 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY 56¢ $51 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 87¢ $62 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $51 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 70¢ $50 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 58¢ $11 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $20 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $36 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 29¢ $15 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.42 · official $58.42 · 589 history records