Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:49:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F6 0xf6f0…8ce2 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$127 (+16%) realized +$127 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -27.3% -34.2% 43% 29% -0.7%
≤30d 7 -27.3% -34.2% 43% 29% -0.7%
≤90d 7 -27.3% -34.2% 43% 29% -0.7%
all 7 -27.3% -34.2% 43% 29% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.2% 29% -0.7%
10% -40.5% 29% -10.2%
15% -46.2% 29% -18.8%
20% -51.5% 29% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$39 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$127
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage4d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $101 +$3 +3%
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $204 −$34 -17%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $166 +$90 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $202 +$139 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 54¢ $104 1h
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 51¢ $101 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 49¢ $102 11h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 32¢ $169 21h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $204 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records