Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:08:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F6 0xf6f1…b386 sports 310 markets active 1h ago coverage 701d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,071 (-7%) realized −$8,166 · open −$905
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%129W / 173L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$392per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$578est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,032now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$195
7 days+$484
14 days−$3,528
30 days−$3,946
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$10,376
other 3% −$16
world 2% −$264
politics 1% +$133
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +42.3% +28.7% 30% 20% -2.5%
≤30d 59 -15.4% -23.5% 39% 32% -23.2%
≤90d 209 -34.7% -40.9% 27% 24% -37.1%
all 302 -6.8% -15.7% 43% 40% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 40% -16.8%
10% -23.8% 35% -24.8%
15% -31.1% 33% -32.0%
20% -37.9% 31% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$292 vs −$275 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

701d coverage
Net worth$1,032
Realized−$8,166
Unrealized−$905
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses129 / 173
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$578
Open positions8
Markets (closed)302 / 310
History coverage701d
Avg bet$392
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 302 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 62¢ 94¢ $310 $472 +$162 (+52%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Athletics 60¢ 60¢ $300 $302 +$2 (+1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $97 $115 +$18 (+18%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Yes 19¢ $300 $1 −$299 (-100%)
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ $700 $1 −$699 (-100%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Under 29¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,502 +$55 +2%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $254 −$250 -98%
Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5) Jun 16 $74 −$72 -98%
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Jun 16 $98 −$96 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $155 −$154 -99%
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter Jun 16 $5 $0 -3%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2,612 +$1,138 +44%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $36 +$353 +980%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $359 −$357 -99%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $135 −$133 -98%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $990 +$13 +1%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $548 +$724 +132%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2,276 −$2,250 -99%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $240 −$150 -62%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $2,238 −$2,200 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Lo Jun 06 $503 +$99 +20%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Tyler: Andre Ilagan vs Yuta Shimizu Jun 05 $152 −$150 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 05 $98 −$96 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers v Jun 03 $48 −$48 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 02 $231 +$169 +73%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 01 $279 −$275 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $984 +$16 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $362 +$121 +33%
Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs T1 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Pacific Qualif May 30 $162 +$386 +238%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $132 +$168 +127%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $930 +$70 +8%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $1,917 +$408 +21%
SE Palmeiras vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 2.5 May 29 $232 +$168 +72%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $96 −$96 -100%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5 May 28 $135 −$133 -98%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $76 −$76 -100%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $76 −$76 -100%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $176 +$224 +127%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $191 −$190 -99%
Will "Canada" or "Canadian" be said on the Lemonade Stand Podcast? May 28 $36 −$35 -96%
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $248 −$248 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 27 $325 +$175 +54%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs magic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 27 $199 −$196 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $44 −$44 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 25 $200 −$200 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 May 25 $253 −$250 -99%
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $244 +$278 +114%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Los May 24 $168 +$232 +138%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs Omega (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champi May 24 $87 −$86 -99%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5) May 23 $1,629 −$1,600 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 29¢ $102 44m
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 19¢ $154 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 19¢ $154 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 60¢ $304 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $203 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $507 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 98¢ $2,502 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $254 6h
Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5) BUY Houston Astros 24¢ $74 2d
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) BUY Houston Astros 32¢ $98 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 44¢ $70 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 44¢ $85 2d
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter BUY Katie Boulter 51¢ $5 3d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs SELL XLG Gaming 100¢ $388 5d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY XLG Gaming $36 5d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 57¢ $153 5d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 57¢ $1 5d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 57¢ $9 5d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 57¢ $9 5d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 59¢ $179 5d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 53¢ $1 5d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 53¢ $8 5d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $97 5d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 38¢ $135 6d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 97¢ $727 7d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 48¢ $172 7d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 33¢ $53 7d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 27¢ $36 7d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 47¢ $78 7d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 44¢ $208 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,032.00 · official $1,039.26 (match) · 858 history records