Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:33:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6f1…abbb weather 146 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$254 (-1%) realized −$125 · open −$129
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate70%98W / 42L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$2,081now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$73
7 days−$92
14 days−$0
30 days−$360
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 24% −$222
politics 22% −$118
weather 17% +$51
other 15% +$2
tech 12% −$78
finance 5% +$105
world 5% −$141
sports 0% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -22.6% -29.9% 67% 17% -17.1%
≤30d 21 -7.6% -16.4% 76% 19% -14.2%
≤90d 140 -6.3% -15.2% 70% 16% -10.8%
all 140 -6.3% -15.2% 70% 16% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 16% -10.8%
10% -23.3% 13% -19.3%
15% -30.7% 9% -27.1%
20% -37.5% 5% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$29 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$2,081
Realized−$125
Unrealized−$129
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses98 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)140 / 146
History coverage88d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $993 $1,002 +$9 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 79¢ $300 $476 +$176 (+59%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $194 $199 +$6 (+3%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 21¢ $300 $124 −$176 (-59%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 75¢ 99¢ $75 $99 +$24 (+32%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $88 in June? No 95¢ 98¢ $95 $98 +$3 (+3%)
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 23-29? No 74¢ 80¢ $77 $83 +$6 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $110 −$75 -69%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 24 $96 +$2 +2%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 16-22? Jun 23 $77 +$23 +30%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 22 $96 $0 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 16-22? Jun 22 $669 +$5 +1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $1,248 +$2 +0%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $65 +$6 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $144 +$56 +39%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $686 +$14 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $356 +$14 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $1,009 −$40 -4%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 11 $70 −$70 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 11 $181 +$1 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $142 +$3 +2%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $342 +$16 +5%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1? Jun 02 $21 +$9 +46%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1? May 31 $353 −$340 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 29 $288 +$12 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 29 $61 +$39 +64%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 29 $288 +$12 +4%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25? May 26 $142 +$8 +6%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 19-25? May 26 $179 +$9 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 18-24? May 24 $496 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24? May 22 $0 $0 +301%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on May 21? May 21 $3 +$1 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 20? May 21 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on May 20? May 20 $4 −$3 -82%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 20 $57 −$2 -3%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18? May 18 $101 +$9 +9%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18? May 18 $257 +$10 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 11-17? May 18 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on May 12? May 13 $17 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on May 12? May 12 $99 +$1 +1%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 5-11? May 12 $122 +$35 +29%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 5-11? May 11 $195 +$5 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 4-10? May 11 $88 +$12 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of May 4 2026? May 09 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 May 4-10? May 07 $86 +$6 +7%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 28-May 4? May 05 $298 +$2 +1%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 28-May 4? May 05 $132 +$9 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 4? May 05 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 4? May 05 $141 +$2 +1%
Over $100M committed to the Printr public sale? May 04 $162 +$10 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on May 2? May 02 $3 −$2 -83%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 01 $197 +$3 +2%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? May 01 $294 +$6 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? May 01 $194 +$6 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 01 $89 +$11 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 01 $196 +$5 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 23-29? BUY No 79¢ $44 1h
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 23-29? BUY No 72¢ $5 13h
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 23-29? BUY No 72¢ $2 14h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 15h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $297 33h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $99 34h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $99 34h
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 23-29? BUY No 66¢ $19 40h
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 23-29? BUY No 74¢ $8 42h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $98 44h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $199 44h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $187 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $80 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $32 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 96¢ $5 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 96¢ $2 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 96¢ $77 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 96¢ $12 3d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 16-22? BUY Yes 99¢ $496 4d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 16-22? BUY Yes 99¢ $172 4d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 16-22? BUY No 77¢ $77 4d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $13 4d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $15 4d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $0 4d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $73 5d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $37 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $48 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 96¢ $96 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 96¢ $0 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 96¢ $96 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,081.11 · official $2,081.11 (match) · 735 history records