Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:44:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6f1…7c6f crypto 513 markets active 1h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$36 (-0%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%498W / 15L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$403per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$13
14 days+$17
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$64
other 17% +$17
sports 8% +$11
finance 1% −$2
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 212 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 443 -1.1% -10.5% 98% 0% -11.7%
all 513 -0.9% -10.3% 97% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 1% -9.5%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$87 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses498 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)513 / 513
History coverage175d
Avg bet$403
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 513 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET Jun 17 $149 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $48 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $149 +$1 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $149 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $27 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $61 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $149 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11PM ET Jun 13 $149 +$1 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 12 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10PM ET Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9PM ET Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $80 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $80 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2AM ET Jun 11 $99 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 8PM ET Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $32 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $7 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $100 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $150 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $150 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $150 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $150 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $150 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $150 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $100 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $50 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $150 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $150 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $48 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $150 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $145 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $150 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $60 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $90 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $70 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $40 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $40 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $149 23h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $150 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $150 24h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $150 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1805 history records