Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:13:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F6 0xf6f2…b422 sports 334 markets active 2h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$11,036 (-2%) realized −$9,752 · open −$1,284
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%167W / 166L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,630per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$8,044est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,104
7 days−$6,078
14 days−$4,353
30 days−$1,821
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$18,771
other 4% +$5,398
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -34.0% -40.3% 30% 30% -23.3%
≤30d 73 -16.8% -24.7% 44% 42% -11.0%
≤90d 327 -1.5% -10.9% 51% 49% -8.8%
all 333 -3.3% -12.5% 50% 48% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 48% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 45% -18.4%
15% -28.5% 40% -26.3%
20% -35.5% 32% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$1,822) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,015 vs −$1,094 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$9,752
Unrealized−$1,284
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses167 / 166
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$8,044
Open positions1
Markets (closed)333 / 334
History coverage95d
Avg bet$1,630
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 333 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 81¢ 0¢ $1,285 $1 −$1,284 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 121 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 18 $1,165 +$1,165 +100%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-2.5) Jun 18 $1,247 −$61 -5%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $2,924 −$2,884 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $986 −$52 -5%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $385 −$375 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $640 −$625 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $177 −$175 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $380 −$370 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $644 −$630 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $1,825 +$1,523 +84%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,979 +$1,700 +86%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $6,710 −$2,045 -30%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $971 −$950 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $844 −$835 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3,977 +$1,863 +47%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $287 −$274 -96%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $409 −$400 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $536 +$1,274 +238%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $1,002 +$888 +89%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $485 −$475 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $987 +$1,266 +128%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $317 −$310 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,014 −$939 -93%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $408 −$400 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,015 −$613 -60%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $583 −$583 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,009 +$440 +44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,745 +$443 +25%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1,379 +$356 +26%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 12 $1,015 −$1,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,009 +$440 +44%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $1,002 +$888 +89%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $503 +$550 +109%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $283 +$224 +79%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $3,828 +$2,243 +59%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $311 +$54 +17%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $366 −$360 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $1,247 +$298 +24%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,517 −$1,227 -81%
Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5) Jun 08 $1,017 −$807 -79%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $780 −$741 -95%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $202 −$98 -49%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 08 $101 −$13 -13%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-1.5) Jun 07 $993 +$754 +76%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,007 −$1,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $463 −$458 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $314 +$130 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 92¢ $107 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 8¢ $107 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 80¢ $1,185 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 51¢ $710 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 33¢ $719 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 53¢ $1,179 4h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 50¢ $171 40h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 50¢ $67 40h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 50¢ $2 40h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 50¢ $25 40h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 50¢ $67 40h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 50¢ $30 40h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 50¢ $20 40h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 50¢ $7 40h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 50¢ $100 40h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 50¢ $67 40h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 50¢ $6 40h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 50¢ $1 40h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 50¢ $25 40h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 50¢ $4 40h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 50¢ $25 40h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 50¢ $16 40h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 50¢ $20 40h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 50¢ $25 40h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 50¢ $67 40h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 50¢ $1 40h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 50¢ $276 40h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 50¢ $4 40h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 50¢ $25 41h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 50¢ $20 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.79 · official $0.79 (match) · 1948 history records