Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:13:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6f3…913d crypto 23 markets active 12h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+1%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate30%7W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day40.5pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$6
other 17% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -16.8% -24.8% 30% 26% -14.6%
≤30d 23 -16.8% -24.8% 30% 26% -14.6%
≤90d 23 -16.8% -24.8% 30% 26% -14.6%
all 23 -16.8% -24.8% 30% 26% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.8% 26% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -32.0% 9% -22.7%
15% -38.5% 9% -30.2%
20% -44.6% 4% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 61% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses7 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage2d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day40.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +21%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -15%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +17%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +89%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -10%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$1 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 12h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $2 25h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 25h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 25h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 38h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 38h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $3 38h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 38h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $1 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $3 41h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 41h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 70 history records