Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:48:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6f3…47c4 crypto 151 markets active 0h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$31 (-5%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%65W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$16
14 days+$37
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% +$16
other 12% −$26
world 7% −$42
sports 5% +$24
politics 2% −$10
economics 0% −$3
weather 0% −$2
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +7.7% -2.6% 51% 51% -2.9%
≤30d 130 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 48% -4.6%
≤90d 149 -10.7% -19.2% 44% 42% -15.9%
all 149 -10.7% -19.2% 44% 42% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 42% -15.9%
10% -26.9% 40% -24.0%
15% -34.0% 35% -31.3%
20% -40.5% 30% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses65 / 84
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)149 / 151
History coverage67d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $13 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Down 42¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$5 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +71%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $17 +$8 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $16 −$15 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$6 -82%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$16 +105%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $12 −$4 -30%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$4 +198%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +40%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$3 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$4 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$4 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 08 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$4 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$3 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$2 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$11 +564%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$2 +87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $22 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $17 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $12 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 14h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $14 14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 15h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 15h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 16h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 16h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 19h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 19h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 25h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.17 · official $14.67 (match) · 278 history records