Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:30:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F6 0xf6f4…1157 crypto 973 markets active 1h ago coverage 174d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 174d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$183 (+4%) realized +$185 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate22%217W / 755L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$127
7 days+$124
14 days+$104
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$168
finance 1% +$44
other 1% +$1
tech 1% −$12
politics 0% −$2
world 0% −$3
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -15.4% -23.4% 11% 11% +50.8%
≤30d 125 -71.9% -74.6% 4% 4% -29.8%
≤90d 318 -47.4% -52.4% 9% 8% -21.2%
all 972 -27.2% -34.2% 22% 20% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.2% 20% -19.2%
10% -40.5% 19% -26.9%
15% -46.2% 16% -34.0%
20% -51.5% 14% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$3 · ×3.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$185
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses217 / 755
Open positions1
Markets (closed)972 / 973
History coverage174d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 972 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +228%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 10? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$175 +3496%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -32%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $1 $0 -41%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -92%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -86%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -86%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -87%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$6 +121%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 5? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 5? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $180 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 25h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 25h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? BUY No 1¢ $0 28h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? BUY No 1¢ $0 28h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? BUY No 1¢ $0 28h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? BUY No 1¢ $0 28h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 32h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 3500 history records