Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:42:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6f4…f6a8 crypto 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$188 (-13%) realized −$190 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate31%8W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$410
7 days−$398
14 days−$381
30 days−$381
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 33% −$320
crypto 31% +$8
other 27% −$69
world 8% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-44.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -55.1% -59.4% 20% 20% -38.0%
≤30d 26 -38.8% -44.6% 31% 27% -35.2%
≤90d 26 -38.8% -44.6% 31% 27% -35.2%
all 26 -38.8% -44.6% 31% 27% -35.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.6% 27% -35.2%
10% -49.9% 27% -41.4%
15% -54.7% 19% -47.1%
20% -59.2% 15% -52.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$33 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$190
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses8 / 18
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage9d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+5%)
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) IR Iran $2 $3 +$1 (+43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $280 −$120 -43%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $58 −$55 -95%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 21 $63 −$24 -38%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $58 −$10 -16%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $42 −$40 -94%
Alexander Isak: 2+ goals Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $208 +$55 +26%
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 −$4 -17%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $156 +$99 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $38 +$13 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 19 $16 +$13 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $27 −$9 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $33 +$14 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$7 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 SELL Over $29 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $131 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 31¢ $131 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $76 3h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran $2 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $74 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 10¢ $77 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $95 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No $5 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 15¢ $21 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 13¢ $32 4h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Spain 71¢ $208 5h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 14¢ $26 22h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $32 22h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes $21 22h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 14¢ $22 22h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 22h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes $21 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $39 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $31 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $32 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 91¢ $263 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $208 26h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 13¢ $18 26h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $255 26h
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals BUY No $5 27h
Alexander Isak: 2+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $5 27h
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals BUY No $5 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.11 · official $29.11 (match) · 73 history records