Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6f5…42c2 sports 224 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$37 (-2%) realized −$34 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate60%133W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days+$33
14 days+$33
30 days+$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$24
crypto 36% +$14
other 12% −$40
politics 3% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +25.8% +13.8% 57% 57% +5.1%
≤30d 15 +33.4% +20.7% 60% 60% +15.3%
≤90d 73 -19.1% -26.8% 42% 42% -24.6%
all 222 +0.2% -9.3% 60% 59% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 59% -11.3%
10% -18.0% 52% -19.8%
15% -25.9% 42% -27.5%
20% -33.2% 32% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$34
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses133 / 89
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)222 / 224
History coverage146d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $52 $51 −$1 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$14 +67%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$13 +62%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $20 +$91 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +165%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Neither team to score first? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $20 +$28 +140%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 05 $18 +$5 +30%
UFC Fight Night: Davey Grant vs. Adrian Luna Martinetti (Bantamweight, May 05 $4 +$3 +86%
UFC Fight Night: Ryan Spann vs. Marcus Buchecha (Heavyweight, Prelims) Apr 25 $10 −$10 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Jafel Filho vs. Cody Durden (Flyweight, Prelims) Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Julia Polastri vs. Talita Alencar (Women's Strawweigh Apr 25 $5 −$5 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal (Featherweight, M Apr 25 $10 −$10 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Alexander Hernandez vs. Rafa Garcia (Lightweight, Pre Apr 25 $5 −$5 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Montel Jackson (Bantamweight, Main Apr 25 $10 −$10 -99%
UFC 327: Patricio Pitbull vs. Aaron Pico (Featherweight, Prelims) Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC 327: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Vicente Luque (Middleweight, Early Prelim Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC 327: Kevin Holland vs. Randy Brown (Welterweight, Prelims) Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC 327: Cub Swanson vs. Nate Landwehr (Featherweight, Prelims) Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC 327: Johnny Walker vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $6 −$6 -100%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Apr 12 $5 +$10 +196%
UFC 327: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Esteban Ribovics (Lightweight, Prelims) Apr 12 $10 +$5 +50%
UFC 327: Chris Padilla vs. MarQuel Mederos (Lightweight, Early Prelims Apr 11 $10 −$2 -16%
UFC 327: Charles Radtke vs. Francisco Prado (Welterweight, Early Preli Apr 11 $10 +$6 +57%
UFC 327: Tatiana Suarez vs. Loopy Godínez (Women's Strawweight, Early Apr 11 $6 +$4 +67%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Manolo Zecchini vs. Tommy McMillen (Featherweight, Ma Apr 05 $10 +$1 +13%
UFC Fight Night: Jose Delano vs. Robert Ruchala (Featherweight, Prelim Apr 05 $10 +$5 +48%
UFC Fight Night: Virna Jandiroba vs. Tabatha Ricci (Women's Strawweigh Apr 05 $10 +$8 +79%
UFC Fight Night: Ethyn Ewing vs. Rafael Estevam (Bantamweight, Main Ca Apr 05 $10 +$8 +79%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Apr 05 $4 −$4 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Apr 05 $15 −$15 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Yousri Belgaroui vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik (Middleweight Apr 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ignacio Bahamondes win by KO or TKO? Apr 05 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Ca Apr 05 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Preli Apr 05 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Tofiq Musayev (Lightweight, Pr Apr 05 $15 −$15 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Alexa Grasso vs. Maycee Barber (Women's Flyweight, Ma Mar 29 $5 +$8 +170%
UFC Fight Night: Michael Chiesa vs. Niko Price (Welterweight, Main Car Mar 29 $5 +$1 +14%
UFC Fight Night: Julian Erosa vs. Lerryan Douglas (Featherweight, Prel Mar 29 $5 +$2 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $12 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $40 20h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $40 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 30h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 100¢ $111 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 18¢ $20 9d
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 23d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 43d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 65¢ $23 43d
UFC Fight Night: Davey Grant vs. Adrian Luna Martinetti (Bantamweight, BUY Davey Grant 53¢ $4 53d
UFC Fight Night: Ryan Spann vs. Marcus Buchecha (Heavyweight, Prelims) BUY Marcus Buchecha 58¢ $10 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.83 · official $58.83 (match) · 556 history records