Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:29:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F6 0xf6f6…0e74 crypto 805 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$5,378 (+12%) realized +$6,646 · open −$1,268
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate41%387W / 548L
Whale WR6%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day89.4pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$388now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 32d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% +$2,221
other 29% −$5,343
politics 15% −$1,689
sports 12% −$2,040
world 3% −$943
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (89 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 422 -51.8% -56.4% 25% 20% -60.8%
≤30d 842 -15.8% -23.8% 40% 34% -42.7%
≤90d 935 -15.4% -23.5% 41% 34% -41.3%
all 935 -15.4% -23.5% 41% 34% -41.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover89.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.5% 34% -41.3%
10% ← realistic here -30.8% 29% -46.9%
15% -37.5% 24% -52.0%
20% -43.6% 20% -56.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 6% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$46 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$388
Realized+$6,646
Unrealized−$1,268
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses387 / 548
Whale WR (big bets)6%
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions72
Markets (closed)935 / 805
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$57
Trades / day89.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 72 History 935 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party win the CT-04 House seat? No 7¢ 6¢ $94 $87 −$7 (-7%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 97¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+1%)
Will the Democratic Party win the MA-02 House seat? No 6¢ 6¢ $60 $55 −$5 (-8%)
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? No 40¢ 38¢ $46 $43 −$3 (-6%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 22¢ 12¢ $44 $23 −$21 (-47%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? No 24¢ 20¢ $27 $23 −$4 (-15%)
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? No 57¢ 57¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? No 42¢ 42¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Republican Party win the TX-08 House seat? No 11¢ 10¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-5%)
Will Jack Schlossberg be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $29 $6 −$24 (-80%)
Will the Republican Party win the TN-01 House seat? No 7¢ 6¢ $7 $6 −$2 (-21%)
Will the Democratic Party win the OR-01 House seat? No 6¢ 6¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-8%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 16¢ 24¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+50%)
Will Chris Coons be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Delaware? No 6¢ 5¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-21%)
Will the Democratic Party win the KS-03 House seat? No 14¢ 12¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-18%)
Will George Conway be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $29 $2 −$28 (-94%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $103 $1 −$101 (-99%)
Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? No 26¢ 92¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+254%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? No 72¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Julie Menin be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $29 $1 −$29 (-98%)
Will Lina Khan be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $29 $1 −$29 (-98%)
Will Brad Lander be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $29 $1 −$29 (-98%)
Will Cynthia Nixon be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $29 $1 −$29 (-98%)
Will Scott Stringer be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $29 $1 −$29 (-98%)
Will Liz Krueger be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $29 $1 −$29 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 428 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 21 $606 −$606 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 2, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $29 −$29 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 30, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $165 −$165 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $89 −$89 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 2, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 30, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 2, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Jan-Lennard Struff win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 1, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 4, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $130 −$130 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6m
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 15¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY No 41¢ $41 1h
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY No 58¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $6 2h
Will Ivory Coast finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro SELL No 100¢ $5 4h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $9 5h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $0 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $37 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $8 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $7 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $8 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $388.12 · official $387.41 (match) · 3500 history records