Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:55:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6f7…e0da weather 639 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$17,217 (+132%) realized +$17,366 · open −$149
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate20%146W / 586L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day79.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$352now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$2,862
other 1% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 282 -59.4% -63.3% 11% 11% -55.2%
≤30d 602 -11.5% -20.0% 19% 18% -18.2%
≤90d 732 +4.8% -5.2% 20% 19% -12.3%
all 732 +4.8% -5.2% 20% 19% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.2% 19% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -14.2% 19% -20.7%
15% -22.5% 18% -28.4%
20% -30.1% 17% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$16 · ×3.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$352
Realized+$17,366
Unrealized−$149
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses146 / 586
Open positions17
Markets (closed)732 / 639
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day79.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 732 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 21? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $88 $78 −$9 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 21? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $56 $77 +$21 (+38%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? Yes 35¢ 66¢ $35 $66 +$32 (+90%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $69 $59 −$11 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 21? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 21? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $27 $21 −$7 (-24%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 21? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 21? Yes 11¢ 100¢ $1 $7 +$6 (+809%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 21? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-47%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $107 $1 −$106 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 21? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 21? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 21? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 21? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-88%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 21? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 21? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 483 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 3? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on May 6? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 7? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 25? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 70°F or higher on April Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on May 8? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on April 27 Jun 21 $20 +$13 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 25? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on May 1? Jun 21 $63 −$63 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 2? Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on May 3? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 30? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 3? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 27? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 30? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on April 26? Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 9? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on May 5? Jun 21 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on May 7? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 7? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 6? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 44-45°F on May 6? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 29? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 7? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C or higher on May 4? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 29? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 7? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 2? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 4? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on May 5? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on May 2? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 25? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C or higher on May Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on April 29? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 3? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 30? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on May 5? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on April 30? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on May 10? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on May 9? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 6? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 24? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 40°C or higher on April 25? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on May 4? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on April 26? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C on April 25? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 24? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 30? Jun 21 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 2? Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $1 9m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 12m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 19m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 21? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 19m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $0 21m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $5 21m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $4 21m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $1 21m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $1 21m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $0 21m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $19 21m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $1 21m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 21? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 22m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 21? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 22m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 21? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 24m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 21? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 26m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 21? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 27m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 21? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 28m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 31m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 21? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 31m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 21? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 31m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 41m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 44m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 44m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 55m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 21? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 21? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $352.13 · official $349.90 (match) · 3500 history records