Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:51:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F6 0xf6fa…3873 sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,208 (-37%) realized −$2,208 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%9W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$271per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$2,208
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -16.7% -24.6% 0% 0% -24.6%
≤30d 1 -16.7% -24.6% 0% 0% -24.6%
≤90d 1 -16.7% -24.6% 0% 0% -24.6%
all 21 -22.0% -29.4% 43% 43% -43.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.4% 43% -43.1%
10% -36.2% 43% -48.5%
15% -42.3% 43% -53.5%
20% -48.0% 33% -58.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$172 vs −$313 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$2,208
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses9 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage112d
Avg bet$271
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 60¢ 60¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 15 $7 −$1 -17%
Hurricanes vs. Oilers Mar 07 $268 +$247 +92%
Islanders vs. Sharks Mar 07 $361 −$361 -100%
Panthers vs. Blue Jackets Mar 06 $250 +$230 +92%
Maple Leafs vs. Devils Mar 05 $140 +$130 +92%
Golden Knights vs. Sabres Mar 04 $146 +$114 +79%
Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies Mar 04 $374 −$374 -100%
Thunder vs. Knicks Mar 04 $320 −$320 -100%
Avalanche vs. Kings Mar 03 $518 +$317 +61%
Predators vs. Blue Jackets Mar 03 $238 −$238 -100%
Knicks vs. Raptors Mar 03 $353 −$353 -100%
Pelicans vs. Clippers Mar 02 $428 +$192 +45%
Blue Jackets vs. Rangers Mar 02 $432 −$432 -100%
Bucks vs. Bulls Mar 01 $372 −$372 -100%
Devils vs. Blues Feb 28 $155 −$155 -100%
Rockets vs. Heat Feb 28 $459 −$459 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls Feb 27 $347 +$273 +79%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Feb 27 $172 −$172 -100%
Spurs vs. Raptors Feb 26 $83 +$37 +45%
Thunder vs. Raptors Feb 25 $15 +$10 +70%
Celtics vs. Nuggets Feb 24 $523 −$523 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 60¢ $8 1h
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 60¢ $4 35d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 60¢ $3 35d
Islanders vs. Sharks BUY Sharks 44¢ $297 100d
Islanders vs. Sharks BUY Sharks 44¢ $64 100d
Hurricanes vs. Oilers BUY Hurricanes 52¢ $42 101d
Hurricanes vs. Oilers BUY Hurricanes 52¢ $67 101d
Hurricanes vs. Oilers BUY Hurricanes 52¢ $159 101d
Panthers vs. Blue Jackets BUY Blue Jackets 52¢ $250 102d
Maple Leafs vs. Devils BUY Devils 52¢ $35 103d
Maple Leafs vs. Devils BUY Devils 52¢ $106 103d
Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies BUY Grizzlies 32¢ $177 103d
Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies BUY Grizzlies 32¢ $16 103d
Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies BUY Grizzlies 32¢ $182 103d
Thunder vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 36¢ $165 103d
Thunder vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 36¢ $156 103d
Golden Knights vs. Sabres BUY Sabres 56¢ $146 104d
Predators vs. Blue Jackets BUY Predators 44¢ $238 104d
Knicks vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 43¢ $258 104d
Knicks vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 43¢ $94 104d
Blue Jackets vs. Rangers BUY Rangers 46¢ $432 105d
Avalanche vs. Kings BUY Avalanche 62¢ $518 105d
Pelicans vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 69¢ $428 106d
Bucks vs. Bulls BUY Bucks 60¢ $171 106d
Bucks vs. Bulls BUY Bucks 60¢ $75 106d
Bucks vs. Bulls BUY Bucks 60¢ $126 106d
Devils vs. Blues BUY Blues 50¢ $155 107d
Rockets vs. Heat BUY Rockets 60¢ $459 107d
Nuggets vs. Thunder BUY Nuggets 26¢ $119 108d
Nuggets vs. Thunder BUY Nuggets 26¢ $53 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.79 · official $7.79 (match) · 47 history records