Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:56:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

F6 0xf6fa…92a5 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$711 (+29%) realized +$1,084 · open −$373

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip

Net edge-20%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown4%max

Avg bet$608per market

Trades / day1.8pace

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)-16.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-8.0%	-16.8%	67%	67%	+20.4%
≤30d	3	-8.0%	-16.8%	67%	67%	+20.4%
≤90d	3	-8.0%	-16.8%	67%	67%	+20.4%
all	3	-8.0%	-16.8%	67%	67%	+20.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-16.8%	67%	+20.4%
10%	-24.8%	67%	+8.9%
15%	-32.0%	33%	-1.6%
20%	-38.7%	33%	-11.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 60% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +33% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -8% · $-wt +33% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$351 vs −$25 · ×14.05 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×28.1 per $1 lost it wins $28.1

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$2

Realized+$1,084

Unrealized−$373

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage4d

Avg bet$608

Trades / day1.8

Drawdown4%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	11¢	0¢	$375	$2	−$373 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Jun 20	$25	−$25	-98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$1,223	+$278	+23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$798	+$424	+53%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	BUY Down	74¢	$25	32m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	1¢	$26	1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	20¢	$358	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	81¢	$1,223	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	96¢	$1,222	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	84¢	$1	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	62¢	$798	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.71 · official $1.71 (match) · 8 history records