Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:34:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F6
0xf6fd…b398
other · 7 markets active 2h ago
4.5score
+$2 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$25
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1 / 7
History coverage110d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit14%
Chart Positions 6 History 1 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 72¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+54%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 25+ times during the 2026 State May 22 $1 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 96% +$2
politics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 2h
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 25+ times during the 2026 State BUY Yes 95¢ $1 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +5.3% -4.8% 100% 0% -4.8%
≤90d 1 +5.3% -4.8% 100% 0% -4.8%
all 1 +5.3% -4.8% 100% 0% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 0% -4.8%
10% -13.9% 0% -13.9%
15% -22.2% 0% -22.2%
20% -29.8% 0% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.51 · official $24.45 (match) · 8 history records