Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6fe…b5d1 world 82 markets active 0h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$10,083 (-31%) realized −$9,860 · open −$223
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate40%27W / 41L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$403per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$4,791now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$68
14 days+$68
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$3,817
other 37% −$3,168
tech 10% −$3,137
finance 1% +$33
sports 0% −$4
crypto 0% +$4
economics 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-32.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.9% -6.0% 100% 0% -6.0%
≤30d 3 -2.1% -11.4% 33% 0% -8.3%
≤90d 43 -9.4% -18.0% 47% 26% -9.3%
all 68 -25.3% -32.4% 40% 21% -41.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.4% 21% -41.6%
10% -38.9% 10% -47.2%
15% -44.8% 3% -52.3%
20% -50.2% 1% -57.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$731) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -43% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$255 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$4,791
Realized−$9,860
Unrealized−$223
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses27 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions14
Markets (closed)68 / 82
History coverage112d
Avg bet$403
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $1,058 $1,047 −$12 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $870 $925 +$55 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1,068 $864 −$205 (-19%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $585 $638 +$53 (+9%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 76¢ $355 $367 +$12 (+3%)
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 78¢ $242 $218 −$24 (-10%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $304 $200 −$104 (-34%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $190 $139 −$51 (-27%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $93 $124 +$31 (+34%)
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 100¢ $103 $117 +$14 (+14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $76 $84 +$8 (+10%)
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 88¢ $39 $37 −$2 (-5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $27 $31 +$4 (+13%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? Yes 61¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 16 $1,757 +$68 +4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $371 −$19 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $330 −$16 -5%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 21 $1,058 +$89 +8%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? May 18 $10 $0 +3%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $219 −$219 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 13 $1,735 +$83 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 07 $590 −$20 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $1,001 +$10 +1%
Will Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026? May 01 $12 −$6 -48%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 24 $232 +$29 +12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $361 +$4 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? Apr 15 $18 −$5 -29%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $12 −$2 -14%
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 12 $14 −$4 -31%
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30? Apr 10 $174 −$35 -20%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 09 $9 −$1 -7%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 09 $7 +$2 +26%
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by June 30? Apr 09 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? Apr 09 $8 +$3 +41%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026? Apr 09 $13 −$5 -43%
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by April 30? Apr 09 $17 +$5 +33%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Apr 09 $18 −$6 -31%
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by April 30? Apr 09 $17 +$6 +33%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30? Apr 09 $14 $0 -2%
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by April 30? Apr 09 $21 −$5 -24%
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026? Apr 09 $29 −$8 -27%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 01 $267 +$33 +12%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $739 +$81 +11%
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by March 31? Apr 01 $1 $0 +33%
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by March 31? Apr 01 $5 $0 -8%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31? Apr 01 $45 +$6 +13%
Will Russia enter Borova by March 31? Apr 01 $23 +$2 +8%
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by March 31? Apr 01 $47 +$8 +17%
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by March 31? Apr 01 $27 −$19 -71%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30? Mar 27 $20 −$6 -32%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by April 30, 2026? Mar 25 $119 −$21 -18%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? Mar 24 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31? Mar 23 $6 +$1 +10%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by April 30? Mar 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by April 30? Mar 23 $16 +$9 +59%
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 2 Mar 17 $94 −$90 -96%
Will NCAA March Madness Live be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store Mar 17 $790 −$760 -96%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31? Mar 17 $104 +$34 +33%
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by March 31? Mar 17 $339 +$8 +2%
Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20? Mar 17 $790 −$770 -98%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 17 $221 +$47 +21%
Will "Gas Price" or "Gas Station" be said during the next episode of t Mar 17 $790 −$665 -84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 77¢ $0 2m
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 77¢ $0 2m
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 77¢ $0 50m
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 77¢ $0 50m
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $0 21h
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $39 21h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $13 21h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $35 21h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $35 21h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $35 21h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $126 21h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $358 21h
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1,059 21h
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 88¢ $9 38h
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 88¢ $20 39h
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 88¢ $11 39h
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 88¢ $51 39h
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 88¢ $7 40h
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 88¢ $5 40h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $354 4d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $354 4d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $189 4d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 4d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $0 4d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 4d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $0 4d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $0 4d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $0 4d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $0 4d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,791.44 · official $4,791.44 (match) · 1339 history records