Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:27:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf700…f601 crypto 8 markets active 12h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$84 (-26%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$92
other 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-38.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -31.5% -38.0% 38% 38% -36.0%
≤30d 8 -31.5% -38.0% 38% 38% -36.0%
≤90d 8 -31.5% -38.0% 38% 38% -36.0%
all 8 -31.5% -38.0% 38% 38% -36.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.0% 38% -36.0%
10% -44.0% 25% -42.1%
15% -49.4% 25% -47.7%
20% -54.3% 25% -52.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$41 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage4d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $8 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $44 −$42 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $46 +$67 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$46 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $8 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $11 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $53 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $53 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $44 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $52 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $46 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records