Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:45:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F7 0xf703…541a other 478 markets active 2h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,937 (+3%) realized +$1,850 · open +$87
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%198W / 269L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$403est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$667
7 days+$301
14 days+$66
30 days+$3,134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$1,346
sports 36% +$751
finance 1% −$828
crypto 1% +$566
world 0% −$5
politics 0% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 -6.1% -15.1% 40% 40% -6.8%
≤30d 439 +1.8% -7.9% 43% 43% -4.8%
≤90d 467 -0.8% -10.2% 42% 42% -7.1%
all 467 -0.8% -10.2% 42% 42% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 42% -7.1%
10% -18.8% 42% -16.0%
15% -26.7% 42% -24.1%
20% -33.8% 39% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$159 vs −$111 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized+$1,850
Unrealized+$87
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses198 / 269
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$403
Open positions2
Markets (closed)467 / 478
History coverage64d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 467 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 20¢ 48¢ $75 $178 +$103 (+137%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 42¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 251 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $81 −$5 -6%
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals Jun 15 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $109 −$108 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 15 $62 +$48 +78%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $122 −$120 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $141 +$340 +242%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $61 +$142 +232%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $36 −$36 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Athletic Club leading at halftime? Jun 14 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $81 −$80 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $121 +$75 +62%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $131 +$71 +54%
Will São Bernardo FC vs. SC Recife end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$139 +137%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $97 +$154 +160%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $95 −$93 -98%
EC Juventude leading at halftime? Jun 14 $182 +$179 +99%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $127 +$150 +118%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $29 +$136 +474%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Set Handicap: Svajda (-1.5) vs Damm (+1.5) Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $455 +$255 +56%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $122 +$131 +108%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $61 +$115 +188%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $286 −$283 -99%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $117 −$115 -98%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $166 −$163 -98%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $192 +$202 +105%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Igor Thiago: 2+ goals Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 13 $127 −$125 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 13 $46 −$45 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 13 $61 −$60 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $40 +$63 +158%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $36 −$35 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $56 −$55 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $66 −$65 -99%
Igor Thiago: 1+ goals Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $49 +$52 +107%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $101 +$65 +64%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $66 +$34 +52%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $81 −$80 -99%
Set Handicap: Raducanu (-1.5) vs Rakhimova (+1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND United States vs. Parag Jun 13 $61 +$85 +138%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $111 +$123 +111%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $126 +$73 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $77 1h
IR Iran leading at halftime? SELL Yes 38¢ $76 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $16 2h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $81 3h
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $46 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 38¢ $76 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $109 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners SELL Over 99¢ $109 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 55¢ $62 10h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $122 15h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 14¢ $31 15h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $41 15h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 15h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AN BUY 22¢ $128 15h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $36 27h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 29¢ $61 28h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $61 28h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $101 28h
Athletic Club leading at halftime? BUY Yes 33¢ $56 30h
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 43¢ $81 30h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $195 30h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $202 30h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $131 33h
Will São Bernardo FC vs. SC Recife end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $241 33h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $121 34h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur SELL Kamil Majchrzak 99¢ $251 34h
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt BUY Alex Bolt 39¢ $40 34h
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt BUY Alex Bolt 39¢ $55 34h
Will São Bernardo FC vs. SC Recife end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 34h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Kamil Majchrzak 39¢ $46 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.05 · official $408.05 · 862 history records