Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:56:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F7 0xf704…bed4 sports 967 markets active 0h ago coverage 218d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 217d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$35,954 (-9%) realized −$35,965 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%459W / 506L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$402per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Fees−$604est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 218d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$53,850
other 9% +$1,206
crypto 7% −$2,539
politics 0% −$169
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -7.3% -16.1% 52% 50% +18.8%
≤30d 177 -4.9% -14.0% 47% 45% -2.5%
≤90d 686 -18.7% -26.5% 36% 32% -56.7%
all 965 -4.1% -13.2% 48% 42% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 42% -22.5%
10% -21.5% 38% -29.9%
15% -29.1% 32% -36.7%
20% -36.1% 27% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$191 vs −$282 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$35,965
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses459 / 506
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$604
Open positions2
Markets (closed)965 / 967
History coverage218d ⚠
Avg bet$402
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 965 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 48¢ 62¢ $38 $49 +$11 (+28%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Under 84¢ 86¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 248 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $304 +$194 +64%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $488 +$58 +12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $208 +$261 +126%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$30 +30%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $17 +$8 +46%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $53 +$45 +86%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $152 −$150 -99%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 19 $22 −$22 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 −$39 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $79 +$51 +65%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $60 +$68 +113%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $20 +$24 +119%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $15 +$20 +132%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $34 −$34 -99%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $203 +$222 +109%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $260 +$233 +90%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $204 +$337 +165%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $30 +$20 +64%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $45 +$55 +123%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$98 +97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$29 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $53 +$47 +90%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $455 +$136 +30%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $304 +$151 +50%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $183 +$121 +66%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $65 −$64 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $176 −$173 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $67 −$65 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $256 +$18 +7%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $130 +$126 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$29 -96%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $29 +$21 +73%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -97%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $106 +$94 +89%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $92 +$50 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$50 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 84¢ $5 3m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $197 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $39 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 94¢ $301 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $488 18h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 5¢ $3 18h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 2¢ $5 18h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $20 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $208 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 78¢ $131 19h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 26¢ $25 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 20h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $17 20h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 58¢ $152 23h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $30 23h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 23h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Vitality 42¢ $22 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 39¢ $40 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $98 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 53¢ $53 26h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 60¢ $79 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 48¢ $30 28h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $34 29h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 96¢ $34 29h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 86¢ $60 29h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 33¢ $20 30h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 50¢ $26 30h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 50¢ $6 30h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 50¢ $8 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.35 · official $50.48 · 3500 history records