Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:52:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

F7 0xf706…32ed other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$36 (+1%) realized +$37 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip

Net edge-30%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$1,219per market

Trades / day0.8pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$5,799now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days+$42

14 days+$34

30 days+$34

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-30.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-5.3%	-14.3%	50%	50%	+5.1%
≤30d	4	-22.7%	-30.1%	50%	50%	+1.5%
≤90d	4	-22.7%	-30.1%	50%	50%	+1.5%
all	4	-22.7%	-30.1%	50%	50%	+1.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-30.1%	50%	+1.5%
10%	-36.8%	25%	-8.3%
15%	-42.9%	25%	-17.1%
20%	-48.5%	25%	-25.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +12% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -23% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$72 vs −$55 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.31 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$5,799

Realized+$37

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage9d

Avg bet$1,219

Trades / day0.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	90¢	90¢	$5,800	$5,799	−$1 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$159	+$142	+89%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$9	+$2	+20%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	90¢	$5,817	1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$301	3d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	52¢	$159	3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	51¢	$101	4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	19¢	$10	7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$11	8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	83¢	$9	9d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,799.28 · official $5,799.28 (match) · 7 history records