Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:45:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F7 0xf706…f685 sports 521 markets active 0h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,702 (-4%) realized −$8,688 · open −$14
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate61%317W / 203L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$399per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$1,897est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$220
7 days−$1,537
14 days−$957
30 days−$3,403
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$4,454
other 16% −$5,196
world 0% +$107
crypto 0% −$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -5.6% -14.6% 64% 54% -19.5%
≤30d 170 -7.2% -16.0% 64% 51% -12.4%
≤90d 475 -7.8% -16.6% 62% 54% -12.5%
all 520 -8.0% -16.8% 61% 54% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 54% -13.4%
10% -24.8% 38% -21.7%
15% -32.0% 26% -29.3%
20% -38.7% 15% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$260 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$8,688
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses317 / 203
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$1,897
Open positions1
Markets (closed)520 / 521
History coverage116d
Avg bet$399
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 520 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Over 66¢ 52¢ $63 $49 −$14 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 146 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $349 +$13 +4%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $498 +$349 +70%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $253 −$250 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $498 −$490 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $283 −$280 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $498 +$284 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $505 +$155 +31%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin Jun 18 $71 −$64 -90%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $143 −$72 -50%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $474 +$178 +38%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $451 +$27 +6%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $299 +$193 +64%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $386 +$66 +17%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $487 +$197 +40%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $393 +$95 +24%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $201 +$99 +49%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys Jun 18 $498 +$98 +20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $599 −$592 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $510 +$89 +18%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $737 +$138 +19%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Maxim Mrva Jun 17 $364 +$67 +18%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $397 −$92 -23%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $322 +$73 +23%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $196 +$129 +66%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $304 −$300 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $378 −$376 -100%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $299 −$293 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,229 −$1,221 -99%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $228 +$4 +2%
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 15 $299 +$229 +76%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $300 −$297 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $383 +$123 +32%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $198 +$129 +65%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $101 +$6 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $101 +$44 +43%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $127 −$25 -20%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $101 +$26 +26%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 14 $401 −$56 -14%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $97 +$61 +63%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 13 $97 −$96 -99%
Ilkley: Taylah Preston vs Harmony Tan Jun 09 $393 −$389 -99%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 09 $402 −$13 -3%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Francesca Jones Jun 09 $1,098 +$158 +14%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Jun 09 $969 +$129 +13%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Elias Ymer Jun 08 $912 +$57 +6%
Ilkley: Linda Klimovicova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 08 $339 −$25 -7%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $649 +$287 +44%
Cattolica: Liam Broady vs Ioannis Xilas Jun 08 $606 +$42 +7%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 08 $617 −$9 -1%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $590 +$26 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 66¢ $64 12m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 89¢ $361 18m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 85¢ $349 25m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $847 29m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $498 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 61¢ $253 8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $498 15h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 62¢ $283 16h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $498 23h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $505 47h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin SELL Roman Safiullin $7 2d
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 23¢ $71 2d
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Jiri Lehecka 30¢ $71 2d
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 59¢ $143 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $652 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $474 2d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) SELL South Africa 63¢ $478 2d
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston SELL Ann Li 100¢ $491 2d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 58¢ $451 2d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann SELL Alexander Zverev 100¢ $451 2d
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston BUY Ann Li 60¢ $299 2d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Alexander Zverev 85¢ $386 2d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp SELL Tommy Paul 95¢ $685 2d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 59¢ $185 2d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 64¢ $51 2d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 74¢ $252 2d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ben Shelton 100¢ $487 2d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 80¢ $393 2d
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 100¢ $300 2d
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys SELL Elina Svitolina 100¢ $596 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.49 · official $49.49 (match) · 1041 history records