Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:34:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf707…e8ce crypto 512 markets active 0h ago coverage 286d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,454 (-8%) realized −$2,429 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate31%156W / 340L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$267
14 days−$362
30 days−$593
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$848
crypto 19% −$799
sports 10% −$994
weather 8% −$11
world 8% −$16
culture 1% −$121
politics 1% −$24
finance 1% +$18
tech 0% +$63
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -11.2% -19.6% 28% 24% -30.6%
≤30d 296 +9.9% -0.5% 32% 28% -16.4%
≤90d 296 +9.9% -0.5% 32% 28% -16.4%
all 496 -8.6% -17.3% 31% 28% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 28% -17.8%
10% -25.2% 26% -25.6%
15% -32.4% 24% -32.8%
20% -39.0% 22% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -25% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$40 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

286d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized−$2,429
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses156 / 340
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions5
Markets (closed)496 / 512
History coverage286d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 496 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Under 33¢ 32¢ $83 $81 −$2 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Yes 5¢ 10¢ $7 $13 +$6 (+91%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 3¢ $26 $4 −$22 (-83%)
Croatia leading at halftime? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 296 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$16 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$26 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $18 +$29 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$5 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$19 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$49 +390%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$38 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$14 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $61 −$60 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 17 $26 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 17 $22 −$3 -13%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $31 +$33 +108%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $17 +$14 +81%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 +$50 +982%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 16 $26 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 16 $18 +$34 +187%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 16 $5 −$2 -37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$3 -42%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $39 −$2 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 +$3 +62%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $52 +$63 +122%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -95%
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $51 −$6 -12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 33¢ $85 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $21 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $9 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $15 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $21 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 50m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 54m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $16 56m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $27 1h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.98 · official $109.98 · 1555 history records