Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:32:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf709…7697 sports 524 markets active 2h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$874 (+3%) realized +$904 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate25%129W / 385L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day30.3pace
Fees−$483est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$358now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$82
7 days−$158
14 days−$309
30 days−$190
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$208
other 14% −$1,216
world 9% +$1,177
weather 4% +$539
politics 3% −$319
tech 1% +$76
crypto 1% −$100
finance 1% −$136
culture 0% −$33
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -10.0% -18.6% 29% 27% -16.7%
≤30d 462 -2.7% -11.9% 24% 23% -11.9%
≤90d 514 -2.7% -12.0% 25% 23% -11.8%
all 514 -2.7% -12.0% 25% 23% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 23% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 21% -20.2%
15% -28.1% 20% -27.9%
20% -35.1% 19% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$38 · ×2.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$358
Realized+$904
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses129 / 385
Est. fees paid−$483
Open positions10
Markets (closed)514 / 524
History coverage38d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day30.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 514 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? No 29¢ 100¢ $40 $139 +$99 (+248%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $40 $45 +$5 (+12%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Yes 31¢ 31¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $40 $30 −$10 (-25%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $40 $22 −$18 (-46%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $40 $20 −$20 (-50%)
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $40 $11 −$29 (-71%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $40 $7 −$33 (-83%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $28 $2 −$26 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 285 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$3 -6%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -97%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $41 +$81 +196%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $41 −$40 -97%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 −$37 -90%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $40 +$187 +465%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $40 +$102 +252%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $41 −$40 -97%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $41 +$92 +224%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $40 −$40 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $41 +$91 +221%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -97%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 14 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $41 +$84 +203%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $41 +$33 +79%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo Jun 13 $41 −$40 -97%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 13 $40 −$13 -32%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $41 −$40 -97%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $41 −$40 -96%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $41 +$133 +322%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $41 +$102 +247%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $42 −$40 -96%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $41 −$40 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $80 +$25 +32%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 12 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $41 +$116 +282%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $41 −$40 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $62 −$41 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $42 −$13 -30%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $41 −$40 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $41 +$36 +87%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $41 −$40 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $41 −$40 -96%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Hernan Casanova Jun 11 $41 −$40 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $41 −$40 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $41 −$40 -97%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $41 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $41 +$27 +67%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 11 $41 −$40 -97%
Will PPI YoY be between 5.0% and 5.9% in May? Jun 11 $42 −$40 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $42 −$40 -95%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $41 −$40 -96%
ITF Nyiregyhaza: Alexander Wagner vs Alexandr Tiutchenko Jun 10 $41 +$131 +318%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $41 +$141 +342%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 15¢ $29 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 15¢ $41 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 17¢ $41 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $41 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $41 17h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 21h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $41 24h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 100¢ $122 30h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 33¢ $41 31h
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? BUY No 29¢ $41 32h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $40 43h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $41 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $40 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $41 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 28¢ $78 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 11¢ $41 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $40 3d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 30¢ $41 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $41 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 100¢ $132 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 3d
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) BUY Knicks 30¢ $41 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $40 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 30¢ $41 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $358.10 · official $358.10 (match) · 1203 history records