Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf70a…a372 other 26 markets active 1d ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$233 (-13%) realized −$224 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt +62% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +46% what you keep after slip
Net edge+46%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%12W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$114
7 days−$403
14 days−$250
30 days−$250
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$50
other 41% −$85
politics 9% −$14
sports 6% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+46.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -81.9% -83.6% 0% 0% -76.6%
≤30d 10 -14.7% -22.8% 40% 40% -32.2%
≤90d 10 -14.7% -22.8% 40% 40% -32.2%
all 25 +61.9% +46.5% 48% 48% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +46.5% 48% -25.6%
10% +32.4% 44% -32.7%
15% +19.6% 36% -39.2%
20% +7.9% 28% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +62% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +153% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$55 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$224
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses12 / 13
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage238d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? Yes 38¢ $11 $2 −$9 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $155 −$14 -9%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $8 +$12 +141%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $100 +$84 +84%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$96 +94%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $142 +$62 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down on December 4? Dec 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on December 3? Dec 03 $50 +$18 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 30? Nov 30 $100 −$40 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 27? Nov 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 26? Nov 26 $50 +$31 +63%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 24? Nov 24 $50 +$17 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 23? Nov 23 $50 +$50 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 10? Nov 10 $50 +$53 +106%
Cardano ETF in 2025? Nov 09 $10 +$9 +87%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on November 8? Nov 08 $199 +$40 +20%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Nov 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Will CZ return to Binance by December 31? Nov 08 $11 +$3 +27%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Oct 25 $23 −$23 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Oct 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? Oct 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 32h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 18¢ $140 32h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $39 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 5d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 11¢ $20 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 90¢ $184 7d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes $8 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $100 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 64¢ $198 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $204 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $100 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $42 9d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 19¢ $155 40d
Ethereum Up or Down on December 4? BUY Down 11¢ $50 198d
Ethereum Up or Down on December 3? SELL Down 20¢ $68 199d
Ethereum Up or Down on December 3? BUY Down 15¢ $50 199d
Ethereum Up or Down on November 30? BUY Down 22¢ $50 201d
Ethereum Up or Down on November 30? SELL Down 48¢ $60 201d
Ethereum Up or Down on November 30? BUY Down 40¢ $50 202d
Ethereum Up or Down on November 27? BUY Down $50 205d
Ethereum Up or Down on November 26? SELL Down 52¢ $0 206d
Ethereum Up or Down on November 26? SELL Down 52¢ $43 206d
Ethereum Up or Down on November 26? SELL Down 52¢ $39 206d
Ethereum Up or Down on November 26? BUY Down 32¢ $50 206d
Ethereum Up or Down on November 24? SELL Down 30¢ $67 208d
Ethereum Up or Down on November 24? BUY Down 22¢ $50 208d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.25 · official $2.25 (match) · 91 history records