Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:03:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf70c…cae6 crypto 257 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$48 (+2%) realized +$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate27%69W / 187L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day35.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$20
14 days−$2
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$10
sports 45% +$12
crypto 8% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +1.5% -8.2% 94% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 256 +5.7% -4.4% 27% 20% -8.2%
≤90d 256 +5.7% -4.4% 27% 20% -8.2%
all 256 +5.7% -4.4% 27% 20% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.4% 20% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -13.6% 20% -17.0%
15% -21.9% 20% -25.0%
20% -29.6% 20% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized+$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses69 / 187
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)256 / 257
History coverage18d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 256 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Argentina 97¢ 96¢ $91 $91 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 186 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) Jun 22 $88 +$4 +4%
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) Jun 22 $85 +$3 +3%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 22 $100 −$14 -14%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 21 $98 +$1 +1%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $95 +$3 +4%
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) Jun 21 $93 +$2 +2%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 20 $92 +$1 +1%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 20 $90 +$2 +2%
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) Jun 20 $88 +$2 +2%
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Jun 19 $87 +$1 +1%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $83 +$3 +4%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 19 $82 +$2 +2%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 18 $78 +$3 +4%
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) Jun 18 $78 +$1 +1%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $75 +$3 +4%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Jun 17 $74 +$1 +1%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 17 $73 +$1 +2%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $70 +$1 +2%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,206 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$4 +400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$4 +400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$4 +400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Argentina 97¢ $91 46m
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 96¢ $88 1h
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) SELL Egypt 100¢ $88 1h
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) BUY Egypt 96¢ $85 2h
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) SELL Egypt 83¢ $85 2h
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) BUY Egypt 96¢ $100 2h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY Belgium 99¢ $98 8h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $95 20h
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) BUY Japan 98¢ $93 25h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Germany 99¢ $92 34h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 100¢ $92 34h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 98¢ $90 42h
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) BUY Türkiye 98¢ $88 2d
Spread: Australia (-2.5) BUY United States 99¢ $87 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 96¢ $83 3d
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) BUY Canada 98¢ $82 3d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 100¢ $0 3d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 100¢ $1 3d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 100¢ $80 3d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 96¢ $78 3d
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) BUY Czechia 99¢ $78 3d
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 96¢ $75 4d
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY England 99¢ $74 4d
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY Portugal 98¢ $73 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 98¢ $70 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $10 7d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.58 · official $90.58 (match) · 686 history records