Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:26:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf70c…48cf sports 193 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%9W / 183L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 24% −$4
sports 24% −$2
other 21% −$4
economics 12% −$1
crypto 8% −$3
culture 4% −$1
world 4% −$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 3 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
all 192 -0.6% -10.1% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses9 / 183
Open positions1
Markets (closed)192 / 193
History coverage174d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 192 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 97¢ 97¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $33 $0 -1%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $30 $0 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 18 $34 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 02 $206 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 02 $102 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 02 $66 $0 -0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 02 $54 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 02 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $106 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 02 $443 −$1 -0%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 02 $42 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 02 $238 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 02 $326 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $99 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 02 $228 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 02 $103 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 02 $164 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 02 $73 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $118 $0 -0%
Will Hassan Rouhani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 02 $3 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Mar 02 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 02 $145 $0 -0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 02 $31 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 02 $101 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 02 $154 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Mar 02 $33 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 02 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 02 $166 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 02 $92 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 02 $70 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 02 $36 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 02 $35 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Mar 02 $77 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 02 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $72 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 02 $88 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $42 $0 -0%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 02 $37 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 02 $89 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Mar 02 $47 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 02 $8 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $147 $0 -0%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 02 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 02 $72 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 01 $83 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 01 $139 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 01 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 01 $88 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 01 $181 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $34 1h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $33 14d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $33 14d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $30 26d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $30 27d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $34 41d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $34 41d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $37 117d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $37 117d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $35 117d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $35 117d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 95¢ $29 117d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 96¢ $29 117d
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 97¢ $12 117d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 91¢ $20 117d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $20 117d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $28 117d
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 98¢ $12 117d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $28 117d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $32 117d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $32 117d
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $41 117d
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $42 117d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 96¢ $40 117d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 96¢ $40 117d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $38 117d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $38 117d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $18 117d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $23 117d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $23 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.76 · official $33.76 (match) · 774 history records