Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:24:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf70c…2012 politics 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 663d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%2W / 83L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 61% −$14
economics 24% −$4
other 13% −$3
sports 1% $0
world 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 9% 0% -9.6%
all 85 -4.0% -13.2% 2% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -21.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

663d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses2 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)85 / 85
History coverage663d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 85 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $49 $0 -1%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $50 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $51 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $51 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $51 $0 +0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $51 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 28 $51 $0 +0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 23 $51 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 15 $51 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 12 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 11 $51 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 10 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ahmad Vahidi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 06 $51 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 27 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Feb 25 $51 $0 +0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 07 $50 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $49 $0 -0%
Will Southampton be relegated? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the Serie A? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Domantas Sabonis lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Julius Randle lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will AS Roma win the Serie A? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Zach LaVine lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Jusuf Nurkic lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Kraken IPO in 2024? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Breece Hall be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Colts win the AFC Championship? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Biden pardon Trump? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the US ban sharing deepfake nudes in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will FTX payouts start in Q4 2024? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Rabby airdrop in 2024? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity be proven in Q4 2024? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Justin Herbert win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Nick Bosa win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Dec 19 $0 $0 -1%
Will another player be the top Fantasy Wide Reciever? Dec 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in scoring? Dec 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will Ryan Williams win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Riley Leonard win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Carson Beck win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 19 $3 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? Dec 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Roma win the UEFA Europa League? Dec 10 $0 $0 -2%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De Dec 10 $0 $0 -3%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 10 $0 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 14h
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $50 20d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $50 20d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $50 35d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $50 36d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $50 38d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $50 38d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $50 43d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $50 44d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 63d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 64d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $51 67d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $51 67d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 72d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 72d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 79d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 79d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? SELL No 99¢ $51 84d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $51 85d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 89d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 90d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 95d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 95d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 98d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 98d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 100d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 100d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $51 102d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $51 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 221 history records