Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:42:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf70f…1b9a other 457 markets active 0h ago coverage 110d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 110d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$182 (-0%) realized −$181 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate26%219W / 636L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day31.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 110d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$518
crypto 11% −$983
politics 0% $0
world 0% +$2
weather 0% −$9
sports 0% −$4
tech 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-47.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 412 -64.6% -68.0% 4% 3% -88.9%
≤30d 494 -61.9% -65.5% 8% 6% -79.9%
≤90d 719 -48.8% -53.7% 20% 10% -33.7%
all 855 -42.3% -47.8% 26% 13% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -47.8% 13% -21.9%
10% ← realistic here -52.8% 8% -29.4%
15% -57.4% 6% -36.2%
20% -61.5% 5% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -21% → late -63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$24 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$181
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses219 / 636
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)855 / 457
History coverage110d ⚠
Avg bet$131
Trades / day31.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 855 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 92¢ 91¢ $37 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 88¢ 86¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026? Jun 17 $169 −$169 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 24, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on July 31? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 7AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Al Najmah Saudi Club win on 2025-12-29? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 24, 10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 4AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 3AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 24, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 1AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026 Jun 17 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Al Khaleej Saudi Club win on 2025-12-29? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 9AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Al Riyadh Saudi Club win on 2025-12-29? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Jun 17 $450 −$450 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 11PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026 Jun 17 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $22 1m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $9 2m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 3m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $9 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $9 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $9 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 2h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $7 20h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $7 22h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $4 23h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $4 25h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $14 25h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 26h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 26h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 26h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 26h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 28h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $8 40h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $13 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $20 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $37 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.87 · official $58.07 (match) · 3500 history records