Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:45:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F7 0xf70f…3c97 sports 796 markets active 4d ago coverage 331d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$37,515 (+3%) realized +$37,515 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate71%562W / 234L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,471per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$4,197est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,182
14 days−$1,182
30 days+$4,220
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$51,421
crypto 18% −$18,864
other 8% −$175
world 7% −$77
politics 1% −$636
culture 0% +$2,211
finance 0% −$2
tech 0% −$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -25.3% -32.4% 43% 14% -37.9%
≤30d 35 -9.4% -18.0% 54% 31% -1.3%
≤90d 203 -2.2% -11.5% 67% 40% -3.1%
all 796 -4.1% -13.2% 71% 34% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 34% -6.6%
10% -21.5% 20% -15.5%
15% -29.1% 12% -23.7%
20% -36.1% 9% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$1,652) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$359 vs −$718 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

331d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$37,515
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses562 / 234
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$4,197
Open positions0
Markets (closed)796 / 796
History coverage331d
Avg bet$1,471
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 796 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo Jun 23 $754 −$744 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $149 −$3 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $596 −$589 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $299 −$2 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $744 +$4 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $666 +$63 +10%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Jun 22 $576 +$90 +16%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 11 $2,626 −$122 -5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2,051 −$2,019 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 201.5 Jun 10 $4,240 −$165 -4%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $998 −$992 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $1,267 +$878 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $518 −$500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 10 $304 −$300 -99%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - As Jun 10 $2,026 +$64 +3%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $997 +$273 +27%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $1,109 +$993 +90%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 196.5 Jun 09 $1,003 +$89 +9%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $991 −$973 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $1,874 +$740 +40%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $2,254 +$3,596 +160%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $2,196 −$99 -4%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $3,958 +$3,769 +95%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $5,675 +$234 +4%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $3,365 +$2,565 +76%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $1,458 −$1,430 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $797 −$782 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $71 −$4 -5%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $785 −$778 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $91 +$22 +24%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $576 +$98 +17%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 200.5 Jun 06 $400 +$25 +6%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 194.5 Jun 06 $291 +$21 +7%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 05 $635 +$54 +9%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $494 +$142 +29%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5 May 16 $4,409 −$4,393 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 14 $6,099 −$6,058 -99%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner May 14 $2,460 +$3,642 +148%
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 14 $2,232 −$2,191 -98%
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 14 $1,240 −$735 -59%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner May 14 $510 +$58 +11%
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner May 13 $857 +$40 +5%
LoL: Oh My God vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 13 $1,731 +$455 +26%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner May 13 $730 +$274 +38%
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 13 $600 +$127 +21%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 May 13 $4,989 +$1,453 +29%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 12 $499 −$488 -98%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 12 $11,454 +$3,052 +27%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 12 $2,877 −$2,852 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea May 12 $5,368 +$8,958 +167%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo BUY Power Rangers 57¢ $754 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 85¢ $146 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $296 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL No 97¢ $297 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $300 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY No 97¢ $299 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $149 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $748 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $200 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $544 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $729 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $39 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $627 4d
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 SELL UCAM Esports Club 100¢ $666 4d
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 BUY UCAM Esports Club 86¢ $576 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 52¢ $2,504 16d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 53¢ $2,626 16d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 95¢ $6 16d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $2,045 16d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 201.5 SELL Over 81¢ $2,051 16d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner BUY Fluxo W7M 81¢ $998 16d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 201.5 BUY Over 84¢ $2,146 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $200 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $15 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $15 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $15 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $0 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $15 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2425 history records