Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:45:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F7 0xf712…10bc other 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$638 (+3%) realized +$638 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate61%38W / 24L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$382per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$94
7 days+$129
14 days+$282
30 days+$282
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$954
crypto 22% −$804
sports 13% +$536
world 0% +$9
culture 0% −$10
politics 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +2.7% -7.1% 50% 50% -3.4%
≤30d 12 +22.8% +11.1% 67% 67% +2.5%
≤90d 20 +10.5% +0.0% 65% 50% -8.4%
all 62 -3.8% -13.0% 61% 31% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 31% -7.0%
10% -21.3% 24% -15.9%
15% -28.9% 18% -24.0%
20% -35.9% 13% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$684) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$87 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$638
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses38 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 62
History coverage149d
Avg bet$382
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 62 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $102 +$115 +113%
Game Handicap: HULIGANI (-1.5) vs Enjoy (+1.5) Jun 26 $98 −$97 -99%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $1,233 −$11 -1%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $166 +$42 +25%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $121 +$44 +37%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $102 +$98 +97%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $46 −$22 -49%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 +$46 +114%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $42 +$11 +26%
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) Jun 16 $101 +$86 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $35 +$9 +27%
Game Handicap: Tundra (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) May 20 $497 +$381 +76%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $199 −$196 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 01 $539 −$539 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 01 $526 +$12 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 01 $521 +$5 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 01 $512 +$9 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $200 +$312 +156%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 27 $503 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 26 $684 +$21 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Mar 25 $668 +$16 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Mar 25 $20 −$12 -61%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 24 $861 +$27 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 23 $830 +$31 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Mar 22 $905 +$20 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Mar 21 $823 +$82 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 20 $1,285 +$68 +5%
Will Luther (Kendrick Lamar and SZA) win Record of the Year at the 68t Mar 18 $34 −$10 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026 Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Mar 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026 Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Mar 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 7, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Mar 18 $52 −$52 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Mar 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Mar 18 $555 −$555 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Mar 18 $1,249 +$37 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 17 $7 +$22 +316%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Mar 17 $1,164 +$62 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Mar 14 $1,119 +$45 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 13 $1,072 +$46 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 13 $1,022 +$51 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? Mar 11 $400 +$44 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 10 $922 +$56 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 08 $794 +$128 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 07 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 07 $822 +$51 +6%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $68 −$16 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 87¢ $217 1h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 40¢ $102 1h
Game Handicap: HULIGANI (-1.5) vs Enjoy (+1.5) BUY Enjoy 74¢ $98 8h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,193 12h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,132 12h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL No 21¢ $29 12h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $101 18h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $166 18h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL No 94¢ $166 41h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $121 42h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $200 3d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 50¢ $102 4d
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Inner Circle 30¢ $23 4d
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Inner Circle 57¢ $46 4d
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 60¢ $40 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $41 8d
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) SELL Yakult Brothers 99¢ $188 9d
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) BUY Yakult Brothers 53¢ $101 10d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $42 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $44 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $35 10d
Game Handicap: Tundra (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $878 37d
Game Handicap: Tundra (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) BUY Virtus.pro 56¢ $1 37d
Game Handicap: Tundra (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) BUY Virtus.pro 56¢ $496 37d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Natus Vincere 49¢ $199 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $539 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $526 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $521 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $522 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $512 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 134 history records