Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:16:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F7 0xf714…83d7 other 11 markets active 17h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$67 (+16%) realized +$73 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -11.8% -20.2% 50% 50% +7.9%
≤30d 10 -11.8% -20.2% 50% 50% +7.9%
≤90d 10 -11.8% -20.2% 50% 50% +7.9%
all 10 -11.8% -20.2% 50% 50% +7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 50% +7.9%
10% -27.8% 50% -2.5%
15% -34.8% 50% -11.9%
20% -41.2% 50% -20.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$21 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$158
Realized+$73
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $60 $54 −$6 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $62 +$42 +68%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 +$22 +56%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 +$40 +133%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $61 +$44 +72%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $48 +$25 +52%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $62 17h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 42h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $42 42h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $62 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $29 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $30 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $61 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $48 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.87 · official $157.87 (match) · 24 history records