Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:27:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F7 0xf715…4f9c other 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 558d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$101 (-13%) realized −$95 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate61%38W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$10
14 days+$9
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$115
sports 5% +$3
world 1% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +47.7% +33.6% 78% 78% +27.5%
≤30d 20 +40.3% +26.9% 75% 75% +24.2%
≤90d 20 +40.3% +26.9% 75% 75% +24.2%
all 62 -3.9% -13.1% 61% 48% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 48% -22.5%
10% -21.4% 42% -29.9%
15% -29.0% 29% -36.7%
20% -35.9% 18% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

558d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$95
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses38 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)62 / 66
History coverage558d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 94¢ 44¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 +$1 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +50%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $1 +$6 +596%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 $0 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +65%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +57%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 +$1 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +46%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $5 +$2 +47%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-29? Dec 01 $10 $0 +3%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Execration (BO1) Nov 29 $5 $0 +4%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $10 $0 +2%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Yakult Brothers (BO1) Nov 29 $5 +$2 +33%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tearlaments (BO1) Nov 29 $11 −$1 -9%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs OG (BO1) Nov 29 $5 +$1 +11%
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? Nov 28 $5 $0 +3%
Will Brentford win on 2025-11-09? Nov 28 $1 $0 +11%
Will Tottenham vs. Manchester United end in a draw? Nov 28 $5 $0 +1%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-09? Nov 28 $84 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-08? Nov 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-08? Nov 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-01-14? Jan 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-01-14? Jan 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-01-14? Jan 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-01-05? Jan 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Fulham win on 2025-01-05? Jan 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-04? Jan 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-01-04? Jan 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-29? Dec 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-29? Dec 30 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-29? Dec 30 $20 +$8 +40%
Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-26? Dec 26 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-26? Dec 26 $20 −$15 -77%
Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? Dec 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-22? Dec 22 $20 +$11 +53%
Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-21? Dec 22 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Brighton win on 2024-12-21? Dec 21 $10 −$2 -20%
Will Aston Villa win on 2024-12-21? Dec 21 $10 +$7 +72%
Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-15? Dec 16 $10 +$3 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $70 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 10h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $2 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 22h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $1 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 44h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $2 44h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 44h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 44h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 4d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 15¢ $1 13d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL Aurora 62¢ $7 14d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Aurora 41¢ $5 14d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Execration (BO1) SELL Execration 92¢ $5 203d
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-29? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 203d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Execration (BO1) BUY Execration 88¢ $5 203d
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 203d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Yakult Brothers (BO1) SELL Yakult Brothers 100¢ $7 203d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tearlaments (BO1) BUY Tearlaments 40¢ $1 203d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.91 · official $93.91 (match) · 119 history records